# Integrating SARIMA Forecasting and Metabolomics to Decode Seasonal Chemotype Variation in Ayapana triplinervis

## TL;DR

This study combines climate forecasting and chemical analysis to understand how seasonal changes affect the essential oil composition of Ayapana triplinervis in the Amazon.

## Contribution

The novel integration of SARIMA climate forecasting with metabolomic profiling reveals seasonal and morphotype-specific chemical variations in A. triplinervis.

## Key findings

- Morphotype B showed a stable THDE-dominated profile, while Morphotype A exhibited metabolic shifts linked to seasonal transitions.
- Rainfall variations influenced the balance between oxygenated phenylpropanoids and sesquiterpenes in the essential oils.
- The study demonstrates a framework for using climatic predictability to anticipate metabolic adjustments in tropical aromatic species.

## Abstract

Although Ayapana triplinervis has
been extensively investigated for its phytochemical composition and
pharmacological potential, the effects of climatic variability on
its essential oil metabolism remain poorly understood. This study
bridges this knowledge gap by integrating climate forecasting with
metabolomic profiling to elucidate seasonal and morphotype-specific
chemical variations in the essential oils of A. triplinervis from the Brazilian Amazon. Precipitation patterns predicted by a
SARIMA model delineated distinct hydrological phases, guiding four
strategic sampling periods throughout 2024. Combined 1H
NMR, GC–MS, and multivariate analyses revealed pronounced seasonal
metabolic shifts. Morphotype B maintained a chemically stable profile
dominated by Thymohydroquinone Dimethyl Ether (THDE), whereas Morphotype
A exhibited greater metabolic flexibility, shifting toward cis-caryophyllene during the transitional period between
the Amazonian summer and winter. Variations in rainfall intensity
modulated the balance between oxygenated phenylpropanoids and sesquiterpenes,
indicating divergent adaptive strategies between morphotypes. This
integrated forecast–metabolomics framework demonstrates how
climatic predictability can be harnessed to anticipate metabolic adjustments
in tropical aromatic species, offering new perspectives for chemotaxonomic
differentiation, quality assurance, and sustainable utilization of
Amazonian biodiversity.