# Future Tibetan grasslands will decrease: A novel insight from constructive grass species

## TL;DR

Future warming is projected to reduce Tibetan grasslands by 4.6% by 2060, with implications for pastoral livelihoods and wildlife habitats.

## Contribution

A novel species-level modeling framework is introduced to project grassland dynamics using 44 constructive grass species.

## Key findings

- Grassland area is projected to decline by 4.6% by 2060, with productive grasslands decreasing by 6.7%.
- Wildlife-habitat grasslands are expected to expand by 6.6% despite overall losses.
- Grassland shifts are more severe under higher warming scenarios (2°C/century or 5°C/century).

## Abstract

Tibet’s grasslands, the region’s dominant ecosystem, are vital for pastoral livelihoods and wildlife habitats. However, their future distribution under combined climate change and anthropogenic pressures remains poorly understood. This study presents an innovative species-level modeling framework to project Tibetan grassland dynamics through the simulated future spatial distribution of 44 constructive grass species. Our results show a net decline of 4.6% in grassland area by 2060, characterized by a 6.7% reduction in productive grasslands yet a 6.6% expansion of wildlife-habitat grasslands. Projected losses are greater under 2°C/century or 5°C/century warming than under intermediate warming trajectories (3°C–4.1°C/century). These findings suggest climate change will challenge pastoral productivity while benefiting Tibetan wildlife, offering key insights for navigating the complex trade-off between sustaining pastoralism and preserving biodiversity in high-altitude grassland ecosystems.

•Future warming will reduce Tibetan grasslands by 4.6% by 2060•Productive grasslands decline (−6.7%), wildlife habitats expand (+6.7%)•Modeling 44 constructive species reveals diverse grassland shifts•Climate-driven grassland loss threatens ecosystem and pastoral stability

Future warming will reduce Tibetan grasslands by 4.6% by 2060

Productive grasslands decline (−6.7%), wildlife habitats expand (+6.7%)

Modeling 44 constructive species reveals diverse grassland shifts

Climate-driven grassland loss threatens ecosystem and pastoral stability

Physical geography; Environmental science; Plant ecology