A Brief Observation to Screen Autism in Toddlers and Predict Developmental Trajectory
Fiona Journal, Thibaut Chataing, Michel Godel, Nada Kojovic, Kenza Latrèche, Maude Schneider, Marie Schaer

TL;DR
This study introduces a decision-tree algorithm to screen for autism in toddlers and predict their future cognitive development based on early social behaviors.
Contribution
The study presents a novel decision-tree algorithm using early socio-communicative behaviors for autism screening and developmental trajectory prediction.
Findings
The algorithm distinguished ASD from typical development with 95% accuracy, 96% sensitivity, and 92% specificity.
Nine socio-communicative behaviors, including turn-taking and pointing, were most predictive of ASD diagnosis.
A separate model accurately stratified children into different cognitive outcome groups with 97% accuracy.
Abstract
Autism spectrum disorder (ASD) affects approximately 1 in 31 children. Early diagnosis is crucial for optimizing outcomes through early interventions, and primary care settings need efficient tools to identify children presenting autistic features. This study explores the potential of early socio-communicative behaviors, measured by the Early Social Communication Scales, to screen for ASD in children younger than 3 years old, and predict their future cognitive development using machine learning models. This study analyzed longitudinal data from 113 children with ASD and 59 with typical development (TD), aged from 1 to 3 at baseline. Twenty-three ESCS variables were used to screen for ASD and predict cognitive development. The C5.0 decision tree algorithm was used to classify ASD vs TD, while linear regression and K-means clustering identified cognitive development patterns among…
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Taxonomy
TopicsAutism Spectrum Disorder Research · Child Development and Digital Technology · Family and Disability Support Research
