An interactive heuristic model to test ecological and evolutionary hypotheses on incipient polyploid species

TL;DR

This paper introduces a modeling tool to study how new polyploid species form and evolve in complex ecological settings.

Contribution

A scalable, interactive multi-agent model for simulating and analyzing diploid-polyploid interactions and speciation.

Findings

Many polyploidization events are unsuccessful under standard environmental conditions.

Self-fertility and apomixis speed up polyploid establishment and increase success rates.

Ecological niche shifts can either promote coexistence or displacement of cytotypes.

Abstract

Polyploidization is associated with lineage-specific changes that promote divergence and speciation. Knowledge about the establishment of neopolyploids is fragmentary. We use an open-source multi-agent software to build a scalable easy-to-use command center for analysing complex diploid-polyploid interactions. The workspace is a multilayered environment whose eco-variables fluctuate between generations. Reproductive syndromes, recombinant/clonal inheritance and complex traits (adaptivity, niche breadth, dispersal) are used to elicit fitness values and monitor population spatial dynamics. Neopolyploidization was recurrent, polytopic and heterogeneous in time. Increasing rates of unreduced gametes accelerated the establishment of neopolyploids but removed the role of triploids. Under standard rates and heterogeneous environment, model-based evidence shows that (1) a large proportion of polyploidization events are unsuccessful, (2) parental traits and local conditions prime a loss of diploid fitness that benefited eco-geographic structured polyploid success, (3) self-fertility and apomixis improve the rate of polyploidization, and shorten the time required for demographic establishment, and (4) ecological niche shifts promote cytotype coexistence, but niche expansion favors establishment and foster cytotype displacement. The modelling framework offers opportunities for in-depth lineage-specific analyses of the spatiotemporal dynamics and evolutionary differentiation in diploid-polyploid systems.

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1038/s41598-025-29286-7.

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