# Assessment of the value of polygenic risk scores in the prevention of disease

**Authors:** Aroon D Hingorani

PMC · DOI: 10.1177/09691413251376444 · Journal of Medical Screening · 2025-09-10

## TL;DR

Polygenic risk scores may not be effective for disease prevention due to poor screening performance and high false positive rates.

## Contribution

The paper critiques the practical utility of polygenic risk scores in disease prevention and highlights their limitations.

## Key findings

- Polygenic risk scores detect only 11% of affected individuals at a 5% false positive rate.
- High false positive rates make polygenic risk scores ineffective for screening.
- Using these scores could misallocate resources away from population-wide prevention strategies.

## Abstract

It is claimed that polygenic risk scores will transform disease prevention, but a typical polygenic risk score for a common disease only detects 11% of affected individuals at a 5% false positive rate. This level of screening performance is not useful. Claims to the contrary are either due to incorrect interpretation of the data or other influences. Implementation of polygenic risk scores would divert resources from population-wide approaches that address the major disease burden in the average-risk majority to the follow-up of the many false positive results in those designated at high polygenic risk.

## Full-text entities

- **Genes:** TNFRSF10B (TNF receptor superfamily member 10b) [NCBI Gene 8795] {aka CD262, DR5, KILLER, KILLER/DR5, TRAIL-R2, TRAILR2}
- **Diseases:** stroke (MESH:D020521), asthma (MESH:D001249), type 1 and type 2 diabetes (MESH:D003924), cancer (MESH:D009369), deaths (MESH:D003643), cardiovascular disease (MESH:D002318), coronary heart disease (MESH:D003327), atrial fibrillation (MESH:D001281), prostate cancer (MESH:D011471), FH (MESH:D000073376), breast cancer (MESH:D001943), CAD (MESH:D003324), heart attacks and strokes (MESH:D009203), chronic kidney disease (MESH:D051436)
- **Species:** Homo sapiens (human, species) [taxon 9606]

## Full text

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## Figures

7 figures with captions in the complete paper: https://tomesphere.com/paper/PMC12759097/full.md

## References

55 references — full list in the complete paper: https://tomesphere.com/paper/PMC12759097/full.md

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Source: https://tomesphere.com/paper/PMC12759097