# Burden of multiple myeloma in Asian countries from 1990 to 2021 and trend prediction for 2050: an analysis based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

## TL;DR

This study analyzes the rising burden of multiple myeloma in Asia from 1990 to 2021 and predicts future trends, highlighting regional and gender disparities.

## Contribution

The study provides a comprehensive analysis of multiple myeloma trends in Asia and predicts future disease burden using ARIMA modeling.

## Key findings

- Asia accounted for over 35% of global multiple myeloma cases in 2021, with faster growth rates than the global average.
- ARIMA projections suggest Asia's MM burden will rise before stabilizing by 2050, with greater uncertainty in men.
- East and South Asia bear the core MM burden, while Central Asia shows the fastest growth rate.

## Abstract

Multiple myeloma (MM) poses a growing challenge to global public health, with regional disparities in disease burden becoming increasingly prominent. As the most populous continent, Asia is undergoing rapid demographic and socioeconomic transitions, and plays a critical role in shaping the evolutionary trajectory of the global MM burden. This study aims to assess the disease burden of multiple myeloma in Asian countries from 1990 to 2021.

The data of this study were derived from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 database. We conducted a systematic analysis of the disease burden of MM in Asia from 1990 to 2021, covering four core dimensions: incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). To fully present the complexity of the disease burden, we also performed multiple analytical approaches, including trend analysis, gender-stratified analysis, regional comparative analysis, and ARIMA model prediction analysis.

In 2021, incident cases of MM in Asia accounted for 35.8% of the global total, prevalent cases for 34.2%, deaths for 36.3%, and DALYs for 39.7%, making Asia a key contributing region to the global MM disease burden. From 1990 to 2021, the growth rates of the above indicators in Asia were significantly higher than the global average. Moreover, ARIMA model projections indicated that Asia’s MM burden would follow a “first increase, then stabilize” trajectory by 2050, with a more prominent growth magnitude and higher prediction uncertainty observed in men. This disparity may reflect a combination of metabolic, lifestyle, and genetic factors East Asia and South Asia emerged as the core regions bearing the MM burden, while Central Asia exhibited the fastest growth rate in burden. High-income regions had higher MM diagnosis rates (reducing underreporting), whereas low-income regions faced significant underestimation of the actual burden due to limited diagnostic capacity. Additionally, as socioeconomic status decreased, the average age at death of MM patients advanced.

The study confirms that Asia has become the primary driving region for the growth of the global MM burden, and its burden pattern is influenced by significant gender disparities, regional disparities, and socioeconomic disparities.