AttSCNs: A Bayesian-Optimized Hybrid Model with Attention-Guided Stochastic Configuration Networks for Robust GPS Trajectory Prediction

TL;DR

This paper introduces AttSCNs, a new model for predicting GPS trajectories in vehicles that handles noise and long-term dependencies better than existing methods.

Contribution

The novel contribution is a hybrid Bayesian-optimized model combining SCNs and attention mechanisms for robust trajectory prediction.

Findings

AttSCNs reduce RMSE by 36.51% compared to traditional SCNs and MAE by 97.8% compared to Kalman filters.

The model achieves 52.5% lower RMSE and 68.5% lower MAE than LSTM models with real-time inference speed.

AttSCNs demonstrate robustness to GPS noise and long-term dependencies in real-world datasets.

Abstract

Trajectory prediction in the Internet of Vehicles (IoV) is crucial for enhancing road safety and traffic efficiency; however, existing methods often fail to address the challenges of colored noise in GPS data and long-term dependency modeling. To overcome these limitations, this paper proposes AttSCNs, a probabilistic hybrid framework integrating stochastic configuration networks (SCNs) with an attention-based encoder to model trajectories while quantifying prediction uncertainty. The model leverages SCNs’ stochastic neurons for adaptive noise filtering, attention mechanisms for dependency learning, and Bayesian hyperparameter optimization to infer robust configurations as a posterior distribution. Experimental results on real-world GPS datasets (10,000+ urban/highway trajectories) demonstrate that AttSCNs significantly outperform conventional approaches, reducing RMSE by 36.51% compared to traditional SCNs and lowering MAE by 97.8% compared to Kalman filter baselines. Moreover, compared to the LSTM model, AttSCNs achieve a 52.5% reduction in RMSE and a 68.5% reduction in MAE, with real-time inference speed. These advancements position AttSCNs as a robust, noise-resistant solution for IoV applications, offering superior performance in autonomous driving and smart city systems.

Figures