# Climate-Driven Shifts in Bat Distributions Reveal Functional Reorganization and Spatial Mismatch Across Agroecosystems

## TL;DR

This study shows how climate change could shift the habitats of insect-eating bats, potentially reducing their ability to control crop pests in key agricultural areas.

## Contribution

The integration of DNA metabarcoding and species distribution modeling reveals how climate change may disrupt bat-mediated pest control in agroecosystems.

## Key findings

- Bats consistently consume pest moths across different regions, indicating a reliable role in pest control.
- Future climate scenarios show a northward shift in suitable habitats, with high emissions causing habitat fragmentation.
- Spatial mismatches between bat habitats and pest control needs may emerge under high-emission climate scenarios.

## Abstract

Climate change is shifting where species live, and this can disrupt important ecosystem services—like how insect-eating bats help control crop pests. We studied the Asian long-fingered bat, Miniopterus fuliginosus, to understand how future climate might affect its ability to protect crops. First, we used DNA analysis on bat feces from three different Chinese regions. We found that these bats mainly eat moths, including many pests that harm rice and maize, and their diet stays consistent across all areas—showing that they reliably help control pests. Then, we used models to predict the bats’ current suitable habitats and those in the 2050s and 2070s, under two climate scenarios: one with low greenhouse gas emissions (less warming) and one with high emissions (more warming). The models showed that the bats’ suitable habitats will shift north. While the total suitable area may stay stable or grow, high emissions will split habitats into small, isolated patches. This could mean that bats will not be where their pest control is most needed for crops. Our work helps identify areas to protect (where bats can survive and control pests) and guide plans for connected habitats.

Understanding how climate change may reshape species distributions and affect the associated ecosystem services is critical for sustainable agricultural planning. In this study, we integrated dietary DNA metabarcoding with ensemble species distribution modeling to assess the current and future ecological roles of Miniopterus fuliginosus, a widespread insectivorous bat species in East Asia known for preying on nocturnal agricultural pests. Fecal samples were collected in 2023 from three biogeographically distinct regions of China—Central China (Henan Province) and Southwest China (Guizhou and Yunnan provinces). DNA metabarcoding based on COI gene amplification and Illumina sequencing revealed a consistent dietary dominance of Lepidoptera, particularly families comprising major agricultural pest species such as Noctuidae, Crambidae, and Geometridae. This trophic consistency suggests that M. fuliginosus functions as a moth-specialized generalist predator. Species distribution models were constructed using occurrence records from field surveys, the literature, and the GBIF database, integrating multiple algorithms (GLM, GBM, MaxEnt, RF, and FDA) within an ensemble modeling framework. Habitat suitability was then estimated under current climatic conditions and projected for future distributions under two contrasting climate scenarios (SSP1–2.6 and SSP5–8.5) for the 2050s and 2070s. While the total suitable area may remain stable or even expand, future projections indicate a progressive poleward shift in range centroids and a divergence in habitat structure. Specifically, SSP1–2.6 is associated with greater spatial cohesion (25.34–31.11%), whereas SSP5–8.5 leads to increased habitat fragmentation and isolation of suitable patches (27.12–33.28%). Overlaying the potential for pest control with habitat projections highlights emerging spatial mismatches between ecological function and climatic suitability, particularly under high-emission trajectories. Our findings underscore the importance of identifying ecological refugia and maintaining landscape connectivity to sustain bat-mediated pest control. This spatially explicit framework offers new insights for integrating biodiversity-based pest management into climate-resilient agricultural strategies.