# Modeling the Future Distribution of Trifolium repens L. in China: A MaxEnt Approach Under Climate Change Scenarios

## TL;DR

This study predicts how the invasive plant Trifolium repens L. will shift its distribution in China under future climate change scenarios.

## Contribution

The study uses a MaxEnt model to project future suitable habitats of T. repens, incorporating niche drift and dispersal mechanisms.

## Key findings

- Current suitable habitats are concentrated in southeastern coastal regions and Taiwan.
- Future climate projections show a contraction and shift toward lower latitudes and elevations.
- Bio2 and Bio14 are identified as the key climatic drivers influencing T. repens distribution.

## Abstract

A critical knowledge gap exists regarding the potential distribution and future geographic niche shifts in the invasive species Trifolium repens L. in China. To address this gap—while explicitly recognizing the species’ capacity for ecological niche drift and human—mediated dispersal—we applied a parameters—optimized MaxEnt model to simulate its ecological niche distribution under current and future climates. The results reveal that the species’ currently suitable habitats are primarily concentrated in Southeastern coastal regions and Taiwan in China. Under future climate conditions, the suitable habitats are projected to undergo a notable contraction in total area, accompanied by a directional shift toward lower latitudes and elevations. The key climatic drivers identified were Bio2 (mean diurnal temperature range) and Bio14 (precipitation of driest month), which critically regulate its distribution limits. By integrating climatic constraints with dispersal—related distribution mechanisms, this study provides a spatially explicit basis for monitoring the spread of T. repens and supports the early—warning management of its invasion risk under climate change.

Trifolium repens L. is a protein-rich, versatile Leguminous lawn plant that is widely distributed across global temperate and subtropical regions. As an invasive species originating in Europe, its distribution in China extends from Xinjiang in the West to Taiwan and the Yangtze River Delta in the East, and is widespread throughout Northeast and Central China. However, in recent years, the distribution pattern of T. repens has become increasingly patchy and irregular. Therefore, unraveling the potential distribution and key environmental drivers of T. repens is critical for understanding its ecological role. This study utilized current species distribution data of T. repens and employed the MaxEnt model to simulate its potentially suitable niches across present and future climate scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) in China. This study identified Bio2 (mean diurnal temperature range) and Bio14 (precipitation of driest month) as the key drivers shaping the distribution of T. repens. Its current suitable habitats are primarily concentrated in the coastal, central, and Taiwan regions of China. Under future climates, these areas are projected to contract overall and shift toward lower latitudes and higher longitudes, with substantial suitable areas remaining only in the Eastern, Southern, and Taiwan regions. This study quantitatively assessed the ecological niche breadth of T. repens and its future spatial distribution under climate change, thereby laying a theoretical foundation for describing the ecological characteristics of this invasive species, conducting monitoring, and implementing further invasion risk management.