Predicting the Potential Distribution of Galeruca daurica in Inner Mongolia Under Current and Future Climate Scenarios Using the MaxEnt Model

TL;DR

This study predicts where a pest beetle will live in Inner Mongolia under current and future climate conditions, finding that suitable habitats may shrink and shift northward.

Contribution

The study introduces a MaxEnt model-based prediction of Galeruca daurica's future distribution under climate change scenarios in Inner Mongolia.

Findings

Currently, about 44.9% of Inner Mongolia is suitable for Galeruca daurica, mainly in central–western arid and semi-arid areas.

Future projections suggest a significant reduction in suitable habitat, especially under the SSP2-4.5 scenario, with a northward shift in distribution.

Precipitation and temperature variables are the main predictors of the beetle's distribution.

Abstract

In recent years, the grasslands of Inner Mongolia, an important ecological region in Northern China, have experienced severe outbreaks of a pest beetle known as Galeruca daurica. These outbreaks are largely driven by climate change and grassland degradation. To help anticipate future risks, this study used a computer modeling approach to predict where this beetle could live under current and future climate conditions. We found that key factors affecting its distribution are rainfall patterns and temperature variation. At present, about 45% of Inner Mongolia offers a suitable habitat, mainly in the central and western dry grasslands. In the future, however, suitable areas are projected to shrink and shift northward. These results can help guide early pest warnings and focused management efforts, supporting the protection of grassland ecosystems and sustainable land use in the region.

In the context of climate change and grassland degradation, the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, a key ecological barrier in Northern China, has faced recurrent outbreaks of the pest beetle Galeruca daurica. This study aims to project its potential geographic distribution under current and future climate scenarios to support risk assessment and management strategies. Using the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model with 122 occurrence records and environmental variables (climatic, topographic, and edaphic), we simulated habitat suitability under present conditions and future scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 for the 2050s and 2070s). The model performed excellently (AUC > 0.9), with key predictors being precipitation of the wettest month (39.6%), annual precipitation (24.0%), and annual temperature range (8.2%). Currently, about 44.9% of the region is suitable habitat, mainly in central–western arid and semi-arid areas. Future projections indicate a contraction in suitability, which is most pronounced under SSP2-4.5 (declining to 23.56% by the 2070s), along with a northward shift in the distribution centroid. These findings suggest that climate change will likely reduce and shift the suitable range of G. daurica, providing a scientific basis for early warning and targeted control in vulnerable grassland ecosystems.

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