Predicting IVF outcomes using a logistic regression–ABC hybrid model: A proof-of-concept study on supplement associations

TL;DR

This study explores a new hybrid model to predict IVF outcomes and finds that certain supplements may influence success rates.

Contribution

The novel LR–ABC hybrid model improves prediction accuracy and interpretability in IVF outcome modeling.

Findings

LR–ABC hybrids outperformed baseline models like Random Forest in predicting IVF outcomes.

Omega-3, folic acid, and dietician support were identified as influential features via LIME explanations.

The study highlights the need for larger datasets to validate supplement associations in IVF.

Abstract

Machine learning models are increasingly applied to assisted reproductive technologies (ART), yet most studies rely on conventional algorithms with limited optimization. This proof-of-concept study investigates whether a hybrid Logistic Regression–Artificial Bee Colony (LR–ABC) framework can enhance predictive performance in in vitro fertilization (IVF) outcomes while producing interpretable, hypothesis-driven associations with nutritional and pharmaceutical supplement use. A retrospective dataset of 162 women undergoing IVF was analyzed. Clinical, demographic, and supplement variables were preprocessed into 21 predictors. Four algorithms (K-Nearest Neighbors, Classification and Regression Tree, Support Vector Machine, and Random Forest) were implemented alongside their LR–ABC hybrid counterparts. Model performance was evaluated using 5-fold cross-validation with Synthetic Minority Over-sampling Technique (SMOTE) to address class imbalance. Local Interpretable Model-agnostic Explanations (LIME) were applied to improve interpretability. Across all algorithm models, LR–ABC hybrids outperformed their baseline models (e.g., Random Forest: 85.2% → 91.36% accuracy). LIME explanations identified omega-3, folic acid, and dietician support as influential features in individual predictions. However, given the small sample size, binary representation of supplements, and absence of external validation, the observed improvements and associations should be regarded as exploratory rather than definitive. The LR–ABC hybrid model demonstrates methodological potential for improving prediction and interpretability in IVF research. Findings regarding supplement associations are hypothesis-generating, not clinically directive. Future studies with larger, multi-center datasets including detailed dosage and dietary data are needed to validate and extend this framework.

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