# Pushing your luck: on chance, serendipity, and athlete development

## TL;DR

This paper explores how luck and randomness influence athlete development and suggests that acknowledging these factors can lead to more equitable and realistic training models.

## Contribution

The paper introduces the novel idea of integrating luck into athlete development models to improve equity and realism.

## Key findings

- Luck related to task elements, environment, and biology affects athlete development.
- Incorporating luck may lead to less rigid and more inclusive developmental approaches.
- Acknowledging randomness can improve athlete engagement and outcomes.

## Abstract

The notion that problems with prediction can be resolved with more, and better, data has a long history. In this paper, we examine the role of chance and randomness (i.e., events where there is a low probability of occurrence) in athlete development, focusing on the influence of ‘luck’ on this process. More specifically, we briefly summarize the way luck has been considered in previous research on human achievement and how different types of luck (i.e., luck related to elements of the task, the athlete development environment, and biological processes) can affect athlete development. In addition, the implications and challenges of embracing the influence of luck on models of athlete development are discussed. Acknowledging the role of luck may lead to developmental environments that are more equitable (e.g., by creating greater opportunities for more individuals to get lucky) and realistic (i.e., by acknowledging that predictions of sport- and athlete-related outcomes will never be perfect).

Discussions of athlete development rarely consider the role of random influences.Integrating elements of ‘luck’ into models of athlete development may promote approaches that are less rigid and constrained.Less rigid models of athlete development may lead to more athletes engaging for longer in competitive systems, and improvements to athlete development outcomes.

Discussions of athlete development rarely consider the role of random influences.

Integrating elements of ‘luck’ into models of athlete development may promote approaches that are less rigid and constrained.

Less rigid models of athlete development may lead to more athletes engaging for longer in competitive systems, and improvements to athlete development outcomes.