# Mapping the climate niches of forest insects and diseases in Canada under current and future climate

## TL;DR

This study maps the climate niches of over 4000 forest insects and diseases in Canada to predict how climate change might affect their spread and impact.

## Contribution

The novel contribution is modeling and publicly mapping climate suitability for over 4000 forest insect and disease species under current and future climates in Canada.

## Key findings

- Climate suitability maps for forest pests are publicly accessible via a web application.
- Examples include projections for species like the southern pine beetle and oak wilt under future climate scenarios.
- The study identifies hotspots for bark beetles under current and projected climate conditions.

## Abstract

Insects and diseases are important disturbance agents in Canadian forests and there is concern that their impacts will intensify under climate change. Here we report on an effort to model and map the climate niches of more than 4000 forest insect and fungus species in Canada – including high-profile pest species that are already, or may soon become, established in the country. This work employs occurrence data from historical, national-scale forest insect and disease surveys, several research collections, and the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF). We further employ national forest inventory products (gridded maps) to summarize forest host volumes at risk of infestation by selected insect and disease species. Maps of current and projected climate suitability have been made publicly available via a web application (https://cfs.cloud.nrcan.gc.ca/bmfid/), which allows the products to be explored and downloaded. We demonstrate use of the products through examples, including brown spruce longhorn beetle (Tetropium fuscum), southern pine beetle (Dendroctonus frontalis), oak wilt (Bretziella fagacearum), and map overlays that show hotspots for bark beetles under current and projected climate. We hope this tool will help pest managers to better understand how these species may respond to projected climate change over the course of the current century.

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1038/s41598-025-24833-8.