Survival nomogram for melanoma with bone metastasis based on the SEER database and an external validation cohort

TL;DR

This study creates and validates a survival prediction model for melanoma patients with bone metastasis using data from SEER and Fujian Cancer Hospital.

Contribution

A novel nomogram model incorporating multiple clinical factors for predicting survival in melanoma with bone metastasis is developed and externally validated.

Findings

The nomogram achieved AUCs of 0.714, 0.791, and 0.842 for 1-, 3-, and 5-year survival in the external validation cohort.

Calibration curves confirmed the model's accuracy in predicting survival outcomes.

The model includes factors like age, tumor stage, and metastasis status to predict prognosis.

Abstract

We aimed to develop and validate a comprehensive prognostic model for melanoma bone metastasis.

Data on melanoma bone metastasis patients were obtained from the SEER database and Fujian Cancer Hospital. Cox regression analysis was conducted to identify independent prognostic factors and to establish a Nomogram to predict the overall survival rate of patients.

We generated a Nomogram chart incorporating factors such as Age, Site, AJCC T stage, AJCC N stage, Surg Prim, Systemic and Sur Seq, Surg or Rad Seq, DX Brain, DX Liver, DX Distant LN, Tumor number, First malignant primary, Marital status, and Urban. The 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year OS rate AUCs for the training cohort were 0.715, 0.711, and 0.714, respectively, with a c-index of 0.656; the 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year OS rate AUCs for the internal validation cohort were 0.695, 0.725, and 0.719, respectively, with a c-index of 0.650; the 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year OS rate AUCs for the external validation cohort were 0.714, 0.791, and 0.842, respectively, with a c-index of 0.710. Calibration curves showed the consistency between the Nomogram’s observed and predicted prognostic outcomes.

Our model can be used to predict the prognosis of melanoma bone metastasis.

Figures