Forecast attribution reveals enhanced heat mortality from climate change in British Columbia heatwave

TL;DR

This study shows that climate change contributed to increased deaths during a 2021 heatwave in British Columbia, with future impacts expected to be even worse.

Contribution

A novel method using weather forecast models to attribute heat-related mortality to climate change during extreme events.

Findings

11 to 15% of observed mortality during the 2021 heatwave was attributable to climate change.

Future heatwaves of similar intensity could lead to 16 to 31% mortality attributable to climate change.

The method provides reliable impact attribution for legal and policy decisions.

Abstract

In 2021, Canada experienced one of the most extreme heatwaves ever seen anywhere on the globe. We use a weather forecast model to attribute health impacts to climate change. We simulate the heatwave as a present-day forecast, a preindustrial-counterfactual scenario, and a future-counterfactual scenario. Despite the extremeness of the event, our analysis shows that, under current climate conditions, we could have still seen up to 30% more heat-related deaths than the number observed. We show that between 11 and 15% of the observed human mortality was attributable to climate change during this event, depending on the conditioning of the atmospheric circulation. We also show that, had “the same event” occurred in the future, the mortality toll is nonlinear compared with the warming trend, and so the future attribution would be even more extreme, 16 to 31%. We argue that this method gives particularly reliable impact attribution results and is therefore strongly defensible in decision-making and legal settings.

Forecast attribution shows the unseen mortality extremes during British Columbia 2021 heatwave and shifts due to climate change.

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