Fire-Driven Land Cover Change and Zoonotic Disease Risk in African Landscapes

TL;DR

This study shows that fires in forests increase zoonotic disease risk, highlighting the need for better fire management to prevent disease spillover.

Contribution

The study provides direct empirical evidence that fire-linked vegetation loss in forests increases zoonotic disease risk.

Findings

Fire-driven vegetation decline in forests is associated with increased outbreak rates.

No significant zoonotic risk increase is observed in agricultural or other-use areas.

Fire management strategies are critical for reducing spillover potential.

Abstract

Land use and land cover (LULC) change—especially habitat disruption—has long been linked to zoonotic disease emergence, yet direct empirical evidence remains limited. Using new spatially disaggregated data, this study offers the clearest evidence to date that fire-linked vegetation loss significantly increases zoonotic risk in forest landscapes, but not in agricultural or other-use areas. Monthly vegetation anomalies, captured via NDVI deviations, are tracked across landscape types. A quasi-experimental mediation design estimates the indirect effect of fire on outbreaks through vegetation loss. Results show that in forests, fire-driven vegetation decline is associated with increased outbreak rates, while no significant effects appear in agricultural or other zones. Fires—including slash-and-burn practices and uncontrolled natural fires—hence play a key role in shaping zoonotic risk. The results underscore the need for integrated fire management and land-use strategies to reduce spillover potential and align public health with climate and conservation goals.

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10393-025-01743-9.

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