# Futurology of the Situation of Public Hospitals in Iran Until 2032: Futurology of the Situation of Public Hospitals in Iran until 2032

## TL;DR

This study predicts the future state of public hospitals in Iran by 2032, focusing on factors like budget constraints and healthcare reforms.

## Contribution

The study identifies key drivers shaping the future of public hospitals in Iran using structural interaction analysis.

## Key findings

- Budgetary constraints in the health sector are expected to grow due to non-communicable diseases and environmental changes.
- Public hospitals will be affected by factors like drug procurement, insurance shifts, and cost-effectiveness of services.
- MICMAC analysis highlights the importance of government policies and financial support for hospital development.

## Abstract

Background: The changes in the role of hospitals in the future require
planning for the changes in the structure of hospitals. This study aimed to
explore the state of public hospitals in Iran by 2032.

Materials and Methods: The participants were 20 hospital management and
healthcare experts selected using purposive sampling. Structural interaction
analysis and MICMAC software were used for data processing.

Results: The findings indicated the growing budgetary constraints in the
health sector due to the increasing economic and health burden of
non-communicable diseases and emerging diseases caused by environmental
changes, the structure of the purchase of drugs, consumables, and medical
equipment, the share of the health sector in the national public budget,
providing access to capital/loans for the development of hospital activities
by the government, the cost-effectiveness ratio of each service, the
overcharged tariff set for hospital services, and public health insurance
and a shift from employer-based insurance coverage to government-oriented
insurance coverage are the key drivers affecting the state of public
hospitals in Iran.

Conclusion: The identified factors play a vital role in the state of public
hospitals in Iran. This can be useful for policymakers and hospital managers
to recognize the future developments of hospitals and healthcare centers.