# Real-world analysis and future trends of parkinson's disease burden and all-cause mortality in Shanghai Pudong: a population-based study of 3.17 million people

## TL;DR

This study examines Parkinson's disease mortality trends and future projections in Shanghai Pudong, highlighting rising burdens due to aging.

## Contribution

The study provides population-based mortality trends and future projections for Parkinson's disease in Shanghai Pudong.

## Key findings

- PD-related mortality rates increased significantly annually, driven by population aging.
- Individuals aged ≥80 years had the highest PD-related mortality burden.
- Projections show continued increases in PD-related mortality and years of life lost through 2035.

## Abstract

To assess all-cause Parkinson's disease (PD)-related and PD-specific mortality trends and years of life lost (YLL) in Shanghai Pudong (3.17 million population) from 2005–2021, and project future burdens through 2035.

Using population-level mortality data including 4,218 PD-related deaths among 362,558 total deaths, we calculated crude mortality rates (CMR), age-standardized mortality rates (ASMRW), and YLL. Temporal trends were analyzed by the average annual percent change (AAPC) via Joinpoint regression, demographic impacts via decomposition methods, and future projections via ARIMA models.

PD-related CMR and ASMRW were 8.74/100,000 and 2.76/100,000, respectively, with 31,904.41 YLL. PD-specific mortality rates (CMR: 3.76/100,000; ASMRW: 1.25/100,000) accounted for 14,532.50 YLL. Individuals aged ≥ 80 years exhibited highest mortality burden (CMR: 112.29/100,000). Cerebrovascular disease (18.94%) and coronary heart disease (13.54%) were leading comorbidities. Temporal analyses revealed significant annual increases in ASMRW (AAPC = 8.38%, P < 0.001) and YLL rates (AAPC = 7.03%, P < 0.001), driven predominantly by population aging (AAPC = 30.73%, P < 0.001). Projections indicate continued rises in ASMRW (AAPC = 1.49%) and YLL rates (AAPC = 3.49%) through 2035 (P < 0.001).

PD imposes increasing mortality burden in Shanghai Pudong, with population aging as the primary driver. Multi-departmental interventions targeting early diagnosis, comorbidity management, and medical infrastructure are urgently needed.

Clinical trial number: not applicable.

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12889-025-25146-1.