# Climatically suitable areas for Hylobius abietis and Hylobius pales : a global and regional analysis considering economic risks for pine production

## TL;DR

This study identifies regions globally, including Brazil, where two pine-destroying weevils could spread, posing economic risks to pine production.

## Contribution

The study provides new climate suitability maps and economic risk assessments for two weevil species in Pinus-producing regions.

## Key findings

- 68.1% of Pinus-producing areas in Brazil are suitable for Hylobius abietis, and 91.5% for Hylobius pales.
- 42.0% of Pinus-producing municipalities in Brazil face moderate to high economic risk from H. abietis invasion.
- 90.5% of these municipalities are at risk from H. pales invasion.

## Abstract

The weevils Hylobius abietis and Hylobius pales are major pests of pine species within their native ranges. Their potential spread to Pinus‐producing regions outside these areas could result in substantial economic and ecological losses, underscoring the need for studies that identify regions at greater risk of invasion.

Climate suitability maps, generated using the MaxEnt machine learning algorithm, identified climatically suitable areas for H. abietis and H. pales in multiple regions beyond their native ranges. These areas include several Pinus‐producing countries in the Southern Hemisphere (e.g., Australia, Brazil, Chile, New Zealand, South Africa), as well as locations near ports, airports, or major international trade hubs. In Brazil, 68.1% of Pinus‐producing areas fall within the suitable range for H. abietis, while 91.5% of cultivated Pinus areas are suitable range for H. pales. Among the 588 Pinus‐producing municipalities, 48 depend on this economic activity to a moderate or high degree. Additionally, the analysis revealed that 42.0% of these municipalities face a moderate to high economic risk in the event of an invasion by H. abietis, while 90.5% are at risk from H. pales.

Our results highlight the importance of incorporating region‐specific data to improve invasion risk map accuracy and guide preventive actions against two major forest pests. Most Pinus‐producing municipalities in Brazil face moderate to high economic risk from potential invasions by H. abietis and H. pales, emphasizing the need for proactive prevention strategies. © 2025 The Author(s). Pest Management Science published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Society of Chemical Industry.

Climate suitability maps indicate a high economic risk for Pinus‐producing municipalities in Brazil if Hylobius abietis and Hylobius pales invade, highlighting the need for preventive measures.