# Spatiotemporal trajectory of life expectancy and its disparity in China 2000–2030: modelling and prediction

## TL;DR

This study models and predicts life expectancy trends in China from 2000 to 2030, showing increasing life expectancy and decreasing regional disparities.

## Contribution

The novel use of the Geotree method and multilevel modeling to predict life expectancy and its disparities in China by 2030.

## Key findings

- Life expectancy in China is projected to reach 80.05 years by 2030 with reduced regional disparities.
- Socioeconomic development is a key driver of rising life expectancy, overcoming natural environmental constraints.
- Western China shows significant improvement in life expectancy as socioeconomic conditions improve.

## Abstract

Life expectancy (LE) is one of crucial metrics of human evolution. However, the evolutionary trajectories of LE in different regions of China and the regional inequalities expected in 2030 are still unclear yet.

This study collected provincial LE data and relevant explanatory variables for the years of 2000, 2010, 2020 in China. The Geotree method was employed to reconstruct the evolution trajectories of LE, while a multilevel model was used to predict LEs at the provincial levels in the country for the year 2030.

The LE in China exhibited significant geographical pattern, decreasing from the east to the west of the country. LE increases with socio-economic development but is constrained by the natural environment. The physical limitation to LE is significant in western China but are being alleviated with the development of socio-economic conditions. LE will increase in all provinces by 2030, with the overall LE in China reaching 80.05 years (95% confidence interval: 78.93 ~ 81.28), and regional inequalities will diminish.

LE is increasing with the improvement of socioeconomic condition over time; the constraints imposed by the natural environment on LE are being overridden with the improvement of socio-economic conditions.

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12889-025-25201-x.