# Assimilation of high-resolution Ocean Color Monitor (OCM) aerosol optical depth in WRF-Chem improves PM₂.₅ forecasts over the Indian region

## TL;DR

Using high-resolution aerosol data from a satellite sensor improves PM₂.₅ forecasts in India when integrated into a weather and chemistry model.

## Contribution

This is the first study to assimilate Oceansat-3 OCM AOD data into WRF-Chem for PM₂.₅ forecasting in India.

## Key findings

- AOD assimilation reduced PM₂.₅ biases by 30–70% in key Indian regions.
- Initial PM₂.₅ estimates improved by ~60 µg/m³ with the highest accuracy on the first forecast day.
- Forecast accuracy degraded over time due to model uncertainties, with RMSE increasing from 21.35 to 32 µg/m³ over three days.

## Abstract

This study investigates the impact of assimilating high resolution (770 m) Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) retrieval derived from the Oceansat-3 Ocean Colour Monitor (OCM) sensor into the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) for the first time, aiming to improve fine particulate matter (PM₂.₅) forecasts over India. AOD assimilation, evaluated over the period 01–15 November 2023, leads to substantial improvements in model accuracy, reducing PM₂.₅ biases by 30–70% and lowering root mean square error (RMSE) across critical regions such as Delhi, Punjab, Bihar, and West Bengal. The assimilation substantially improves initial conditions of surface PM₂.₅ estimates by approximately 60 µg/m³. Forecast accuracy is the highest on the first day, with an RMSE of 21.35 µg/m³ and a correlation coefficient (R) of 0.75, followed by increasing RMSE values of 30.40 µg/m³ on Day 2 and 32 µg/m³ on Day 3, with correlations of 0.73 and 0.70, respectively, reflecting degradation of assimilation benefits by model uncertainties over time. With MODIS nearing phase-out, high-resolutionOCM AOD retrievals offer a reliable alternate choice for future AOD assimilation in the AIRWISE forecasting system over India.

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1038/s41598-025-23307-1.