Climate Change Projected Effects on Hamatocaulis vernicosus Occurrence in Romania
Sorin Ștefănuț, Claudia Biță-Nicolae, Tiberiu Sahlean, Constantin-Ciprian Bîrsan, Ioana Cătălina Paica, Georgiana-Roxana Nicoară, Florența-Elena Helepciuc, Miruna-Maria Ștefănuț, Ana-Maria Moroșanu

TL;DR
This study predicts that climate change will significantly reduce the habitat of a vulnerable moss species in Romania by 2050 and 2100.
Contribution
The study introduces a predictive model for the future distribution of Hamatocaulis vernicosus under climate change scenarios in Romania.
Findings
The species prefers cold, stable climates with high seasonal rainfall.
Climate models predict a 30–60% range loss for the moss by 2100.
Habitat fragmentation is expected to increase, especially in the Carpathians.
Abstract
Hamatocaulis vernicosus is a pleurocarpous moss of conservation concern, listed in Annex II of the EU Habitats Directive due to its significant and ongoing decline across Europe. H. vernicosus is also listed as ‘Vulnerable’ on the Red List of Romanian Bryophytes. Despite its protected status, the species remains under-recorded in Romania, where many potentially suitable habitats have yet to be surveyed. The ecosystems, classified as Transition mire and quaking bog (NATURA 2000 code: 7140), are wet peatlands with oligo- to mesotrophic conditions and a pH of 5.0–7.5 H. vernicosus is recorded in 58 Romanian locations (10 confirmed by us, 5 new), spanning the Continental and Alpine bioregions. Models showed good performance (AUC 0.79–0.83; TSS 0.54–0.59), with distribution mainly shaped by mean annual temperature and temperature range, and secondarily by precipitation. The species favors…
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Taxonomy
TopicsPeatlands and Wetlands Ecology · Bryophyte Studies and Records · Botany and Plant Ecology Studies
