# Global, regional, and national burden of headache disorders, 1990–2021, and projections to 2050: a comprehensive analysis of the global burden of disease study 2021

## TL;DR

This study analyzes global trends in headache disorders from 1990 to 2021 and predicts a significant rise in cases by 2050, emphasizing the need for public health action.

## Contribution

The study provides updated global projections of headache disorders and identifies trends in health inequities using advanced statistical models.

## Key findings

- Global incidence of headache disorders reached 809.2 million in 2021, with tension-type headaches being most prevalent.
- Age-standardized rates of incidence, prevalence, and DALYs have increased since 1990.
- Projections suggest over 3.5 billion cases by 2050 if current trends continue.

## Abstract

Headache disorders, including migraines and tension-type headaches, are prevalent and debilitating conditions that affect millions of people worldwide. And this analysis aims to inform evidence-based interventions and policies for alleviating the burden of headache disorders on individuals and societies.

We analyzed headache data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 report, examining the prevalence, incidence, and disability-adjusted life years across 204 countries and territories over 32 years. The data were stratified according to age, sex, year, geographical region, and socio-demographic Index (SDI). We employed the estimated average percentage change calculation to assess the temporal trends of these indicators. A detailed analysis of health inequities was conducted using decomposition analysis, the pyramid model, slope index, and concentration index. The Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort model was used to forecast the disease burden over the next 26 years.

By 2021, the global incidence of headache disorders was estimated to be 809.2 million, with tension-type headaches being the most prevalent. Age-standardized incidence rates, prevalence rates, and DALYs have exhibited an overall upward trend since 1990. The health inequality analysis revealed a diminishing disparity in the burden of headache disorders across countries with varying SDI scores. Predictions indicate a continuous increase in headache disorders, potentially reaching over 3.5 billion by 2050 based on current trends.

The burden of headache disorders is increasing, with important implications for global health and the economy. The rising predictions highlight the potential need for targeted public health strategies and interventions.