# Predictors of non-completion of upper secondary education in Finland based on register data

## TL;DR

This study identifies key factors that predict students not completing upper secondary education in Finland, using register data to support prevention efforts.

## Contribution

The study uses register data to identify the strongest predictors of school non-completion in Finland.

## Key findings

- Unauthorized absences were the strongest predictor of non-completion (OR = 2.27).
- Family poverty and mental health diagnoses also significantly predicted non-completion.
- Register data can help monitor and prevent school non-completion through early signals.

## Abstract

School non-completion is a public health and educational concern in most countries. This study sought to identify the strongest predictors of the non-completion of upper secondary education based on register data.

A cross-validated elastic net regression analysis was used to predict school non-completion in a population of 2696 students in the city of Jyväskylä, Finland. The register data included data from the primary social and healthcare register and the educational register.

The non-completion rate was 13.1% (13.4% for males, 12.8% for females). The non-completion of upper secondary education was best predicted by the following seven features (ordered from strongest to weakest): unauthorized absences (odds ratio (OR) = 2.27), out-of-home placement (OR = 2.23), average grade when leaving lower secondary education (OR = 0.73), an anxiety/depression diagnosis (OR = 1.43), visits to child guidance and family counselling centres (OR = 1.17), family poverty (OR = 1.11) and the grade point average in the 5th Grade (OR = 0.95).

Register data can be utilized to find the strongest predictors of school non-completion. Predictors support multidisciplinary actions preventing non-completion by providing both early signals to target actions more specifically and indicators for monitoring the impact of preventative actions.