# Crop performance and profitability for the initial transition years of a regenerative cropping system in the Upper Midwest United States

## TL;DR

This study shows that transitioning to regenerative farming in the Upper Midwest can be as profitable as conventional methods if managed carefully during the first three years.

## Contribution

The paper provides a detailed economic analysis of early transition years to regenerative agriculture, showing equivalent profitability to conventional systems.

## Key findings

- Regenerative crop yields were initially lower but closed the gap with conventional yields over three years.
- Economic returns for regenerative systems matched conventional systems due to reduced operational costs.
- Careful crop selection and inputs can minimize economic risks during the transition to regenerative practices.

## Abstract

The transition from conventional to more regenerative cropping systems can be economically risky due to variable transition period yields and unforeseen costs. We compared yields and economic returns for the first 3 years of the transition from a business as usual (BAU) conventional corn (Zea mays)–soybean (Glycine max) rotation to an aspirational (ASP) five‐crop (corn‐soybean‐winter wheat [Triticum aestivum]–winter canola [Brassica napus]‐forage) rotation in the Upper Midwest United States. Regenerative ASP cropping practices included the more diverse crop rotation, continuous no‐till, cover crops, precision inputs, and livestock (compost) integration. For the first two transition years, BAU corn yields were 8%–12% higher than ASP while in the third transition year, BAU corn yields were 5% lower. Soybean yields were similar for the first 2 years but higher in BAU in the third year due to an ASP pest outbreak. Equivalent yields for other ASP crops were lower than BAU in the first 2 years but similar in the third year except for canola, which suffered from slug damage. Whole‐system economic returns narrowed across years; by year three, whole system comparisons for the ASP corn and soybean entry points (corn‐soybean‐wheat and soybean‐wheat‐canola, respectively) showed equivalent economic returns for BAU and ASP, despite yield differences, owing largely to the ASP system's reduced operational costs. Overall findings suggest that early regenerative systems can be as profitable as conventional systems with careful attention to rotation entry points and inputs.

During the transition from conventional to regenerative agriculture, yields and profits can be variable.We tracked yields and economic returns for the first 3 years of a regenerative system in the Upper Midwest United States.Regenerative crop yields were sometimes lower than conventional yields, but the gap closed over the course of the study.Overall economic returns were equivalent for similar entry points because of lower regenerative operation costs.Economic risks of transitioning to regenerative practices can be minimized with careful attention to entry point.

During the transition from conventional to regenerative agriculture, yields and profits can be variable.

We tracked yields and economic returns for the first 3 years of a regenerative system in the Upper Midwest United States.

Regenerative crop yields were sometimes lower than conventional yields, but the gap closed over the course of the study.

Overall economic returns were equivalent for similar entry points because of lower regenerative operation costs.

Economic risks of transitioning to regenerative practices can be minimized with careful attention to entry point.

Regenerative agriculture typically involves crop diversification, year‐round plant cover, and tillage reduction. There are many benefits, but the transition from conventional agricultural practices can be economically risky. We provide an economic analysis for the first 3 years of a long‐term regenerative agriculture experiment in the Upper Midwest United States to quantify overall returns for a system with all practices combined. Compared to a conventional corn–soybean rotation, crops in the more complex regenerative system exhibited somewhat lower yields but with differences closing over the course of 3 years. In contrast, economic returns were equivalent for specific entry points owing mostly to lower operational costs for the regenerative system. We conclude that careful attention to initial crop choice and agronomic inputs can readily mitigate the economic risk of transitioning to regenerative agricultural practices.