# Projected Spatial–Temporal Habitat Patterns of the Lady Amherst's Pheasant (Chrysolophus amherstiae) Under Climate and Land Use Change

## TL;DR

This study predicts how climate and land use changes will affect the habitat of Lady Amherst's pheasant in China, showing significant habitat loss in low-altitude areas.

## Contribution

A multi-scale ensemble model was applied to project future habitat changes for a flight-limited bird species under climate and land use scenarios.

## Key findings

- Suitable habitat for the Lady Amherst's pheasant is projected to decrease by 2.1% to 62.1% under different scenarios.
- Dispersal ability has minimal impact on the assessment of habitat loss.
- Habitat loss mainly occurs in low-altitude areas, while gains are seen in medium-to-high-altitude regions.

## Abstract

Global climate change and land use change have led to substantial range contractions and shifts. Even more dramatic changes are projected for the future. The Lady Amherst's pheasant is a typical ground‐dwelling bird primarily distributed in China, with very limited flight capabilities, making it more vulnerable to rapid environmental changes. We used a multi‐scale ensemble species distribution modeling approach to model the habitat suitability of the Lady Amherst's pheasant and projected the model to several combinations of SSP‐RCP scenarios and time. We found that the characteristic scale for most variables is relatively large. The ensemble model had an AUC value of 0.98, outperforming individual models. The area of suitable habitat for the Lady Amherst's pheasant is projected to decrease at varying degrees (−2.1% ~ −62.1%) under different scenarios. Dispersal ability only has a little influence on the assessment of suitable habitat loss (−1.5% ~ −60.9%). Loss of suitable habitat mainly occurred in low‐altitude areas, while gain of habitat occurred in medium‐to‐high‐altitude areas. Our results may provide a scientific basis for future conservation strategies of this beautiful pheasant.

A multi‐scale ensemble distribution model was used to evaluate the
Chrysolophus amherstiae
under different climate and land use change scenarios. Habitats of C. amherstiae are projected to decrease at varying degrees (−2.1% ~ −62.1%) under different scenarios. Dispersal ability did not significantly affect the habitat change rate evaluation.