# An observational study on the association between smoking and relative poverty in China: Evidence from two waves of China Family Panel Studies

## TL;DR

Smoking increases the risk of household poverty in China, suggesting that tobacco control could help reduce poverty.

## Contribution

This study provides longitudinal evidence linking smoking to relative poverty in Chinese households.

## Key findings

- Current and former-smoking households had higher poverty rates compared to non-smoking households.
- Tobacco use was significantly associated with increased odds of household relative poverty.
- Poverty gap indices slightly declined between 2018 and 2020 despite stable headcount ratios.

## Abstract

Smoking is the leading, preventable factor which significantly increases the likelihood of household relative poverty in China. This study aimed to explore the association between smoking and relative poverty across different households and provide evidence for targeted tobacco control measures and poverty reduction policies.

This study adopted a longitudinal design using two waves of unbalanced panel data from the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) conducted in 2018 and 2020. Data were collected through structured questionnaires and self-reported responses. Smoking status of household members was considered the exposure factor, while household relative poverty status, measured by the Foster-Greer-Thorbecke indices, served as the outcome variable. A panel logit random effects model was employed to estimate the determinants of relative poverty across households with varying smoking status.

At the 50% median income poverty line, China's relative poverty headcount ratio was 22.15% in 2018 and 22.54% in 2020, with the poverty gap index declining from 11.08% to 10.82% and the squared poverty gap index increasing slightly from 7.13% to 7.17%. Former-smoking households showed the highest poverty incidence (26.3% in 2018; 26.24% in 2020), followed by current-smoking (24.94%; 23.28%) and non-smoking households (22.75%; 22.37%). The panel logit model revealed significantly higher likelihood for current-smoking (adjusted odds ratio, AOR=1.63; 95% CI: 1.44–1.86, p<0.01) and former-smoking households (AOR=1.95; 95% CI: 1.60–2.36, p<0.01) compared to non-smoking households. Additional factors associated with increased odds of poverty included having ≥65 years members, members with chronic disease, and members reporting a two-week illness (all p<0.01).

We conclude that China faces a substantial challenge of relative poverty, with tobacco use significantly increasing the likelihood of household poverty. Potential policy directions may include evaluating the effects of adjusting tobacco excise taxes and reforming tax collection mechanisms, exploring rural smokers’ preferences for smoking cessation information to inform the development of targeted interventions and so on.