# Triglyceride-glucose index and mortality in congestive heart failure with diabetes: a machine learning predictive model

## TL;DR

This study shows that higher triglyceride-glucose index is linked to increased mortality in patients with heart failure and diabetes.

## Contribution

A machine learning model using the TyG index improves mortality prediction in CHF and DM patients.

## Key findings

- The TyG index is linearly associated with 28-day hospital and ICU mortality in CHF and DM patients.
- Random Survival Forest achieved the best predictive performance (AUC=0.817) among seven machine learning models.
- Elevated TyG values significantly increase the risk of adverse outcomes in this patient group.

## Abstract

The triglyceride-glucose (TyG) index serves as a marker for insulin resistance. Research exploring the link between the TyG index and adverse outcomes among patients suffering from congestive heart failure (CHF) and diabetes mellitus (DM) is limited. This investigation endeavors to uncover the connection between the TyG index and mortality risk in subjects suffering from CHF and DM.

We obtained clinical data for patients with CHF and DM from the MIMIC-IV (3.1) database. The optimal cutoff value for the TyG index was determined using X-tile software, and patients were classified into three groups. The primary outcome was 28-day hospital mortality, and the secondary outcome was 28-day ICU mortality. We used restricted cubic splines (RCS), COX regression analysis, and Kaplan-Meier survival curves to examine the association between the TyG index and adverse outcomes. Subgroup analyses were conducted based on age, gender, chronic pulmonary disease, atrial fibrillation, hypertension, and mechanical ventilation to assess the robustness of our findings. Feature selection was performed using LASSO regression, and predictive modeling was carried out using machine learning algorithms.

This study included 1046 patients with CHF and DM. Using a fully adjusted COX regression model, we identified a significant association between the TyG index and both 28-day hospital mortality (HR=1.31, 95% CI: 1.09–1.57, P=0.004) and 28-day ICU mortality (HR=1.29, 95% CI: 1.07–1.54, P=0.006). Using restricted cubic spline analysis, a linear link between the TyG index and mortality rates was found, indicating that a rise in TyG correlates with a heightened risk of unfavorable outcomes. The predictive performance was evaluated using seven machine learning algorithms, with the Random Survival Forest (RSF) algorithm achieving the best performance (AUC=0.817).

In patients with CHF and DM, TyG exhibited a linear correlation with both 28-day hospital mortality and 28-day ICU mortality. Elevated TyG values were significantly linked to a heightened risk of adverse events.