# The Potential Public Health Impact of the mRNA-Based Respiratory Syncytial Virus Vaccine, mRNA-1345, Under Extended Vaccination Campaigns Among Older Adults in the United Kingdom: A Modelling Study

## TL;DR

This study models how extended RSV vaccination campaigns using mRNA-1345 could significantly reduce hospitalizations in older UK adults over 20 years.

## Contribution

The study introduces a dynamic transmission model to evaluate long-term extended RSV vaccination strategies in older adults.

## Key findings

- Strategies with broader age eligibility (≥60 years), 80% coverage, and 2-year revaccination could prevent 310,000 hospitalizations over 20 years.
- Extended vaccination could lead to sustainable reductions in RSV burden among older adults in the UK.
- Alternative vaccine efficacy or demographic shifts may further increase the public health impact.

## Abstract

Background/Objectives: Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a leading cause of severe respiratory disease in older adults. Despite growing recognition of RSV as a public health concern, vaccination options remain limited. This study assessed the potential long-term public health impact of extended mRNA-1345 RSV vaccination campaigns. Methods: A dynamic transmission model, stratified by age, was developed to evaluate the epidemiological and clinical impact of RSV vaccination in the UK over a 20-year time horizon. Eight vaccination strategies were assessed: two reflecting the JCVI recommendation for the 2024–2025 season and its recent extension, and six extended strategies considering broader eligible age groups, higher coverage, and/or revaccination every 2 or 3 years. Two exploratory analyses and extensive model validation versus reported data were also conducted. Results: Strategies combining broader age eligibility (≥60 years), higher coverage (80%), and 2-year revaccination achieved the greatest impact, preventing 310,000 hospitalisations over 20 years in the total UK population. Exploratory analyses showed that the expected public health impact might exceed the estimates presented in this analysis, if an alternative vaccine efficacy profile or the projected demographic shift would be confirmed. Conclusions: Extended RSV vaccination strategies including broader age eligibility and routine revaccination could offer substantial public health benefits in the UK. Targeting adults aged ≥60 years is expected to be particularly efficient in achieving a sustainable reduction in RSV burden. These findings could provide valuable support for national policy discussions on optimising RSV vaccination strategies in older adults, particularly regarding target age groups, revaccination schedules, and long-term programme planning.