# Assessing the Impacts of Climate Change on the Potential Geographical Distribution of Lycium ruthenicum in China

## TL;DR

This study predicts how climate change will reduce the habitat of Lycium ruthenicum in China, shifting it northeastward, and highlights the need for conservation.

## Contribution

The study uses an optimized maximum entropy model to predict future habitat shifts of Lycium ruthenicum under climate change.

## Key findings

- Lycium ruthenicum's distribution is mainly influenced by precipitation patterns and temperature factors.
- The current suitable habitat is about 2.25 million km², mainly in northwestern China.
- Future climate scenarios predict a significant reduction in suitable habitat with a northeastward shift.

## Abstract

Lycium ruthenicum is a perennial thorny shrub belonging to the family Solanaceae and is classified as a second-grade protected plant in China. It has important ecological functions and medicinal value but is threatened by climate change. By optimizing the maximum entropy model, we estimate its current potential habitat range to be approximately 2.25 × 106 km2, predominantly distributed in northwestern China. Under future climate scenarios, its suitable habitats will gradually shrink and primarily shift northeastward as climate change progresses. These findings provide scientific support to guide the conservation of L. ruthenicum in China.

Understanding the climate change impacts on the geographical distribution of plant species is vital for biodiversity conservation. Lycium ruthenicum, a second-grade protected plant in China, holds considerable medicinal and ecological value; however, its potential habitat distribution under climate change remains uncertain. By utilizing occurrence records and geographical and environmental data, we optimized a maximum entropy model and evaluated the current and future potential habitat suitability of L. ruthenicum in China. The main results were as follows: (1) The distribution of L. ruthenicum was primarily influenced by the precipitation of the warmest quarter, topsoil base saturation, precipitation seasonality, precipitation of the coldest quarter, and minimum temperature of the coldest month. (2) Under the current conditions, the potential suitable area of L. ruthenicum was approximately 2.25 × 106 km2 in China, predominantly distributed in Xinjiang, Qinghai, Gansu, Ningxia, and Inner Mongolia. (3) An obvious reduction in the predicted suitable area of L. ruthenicum was found under future climate scenarios, with the centroid primarily shifting northeastward. These findings highlight the potential vulnerability of this medicinally and ecologically important species and underscore the urgent need for targeted conservation strategies to ensure its long-term survival.