The paradox of better population health after the pandemic: what is the cause?

TL;DR

This study suggests that improved health ratings in some European countries after the pandemic may be due to the death of the most vulnerable people, not better health systems or habits.

Contribution

The study introduces a novel explanation for improved health metrics post-pandemic, attributing it to selective mortality rather than systemic health improvements.

Findings

A significant deficit in the oldest age group was observed in countries where aging is poor.

The improvement in health indicators during the pandemic is likely an artifact of selective mortality.

The study warns against interpreting pandemic-era health metrics as true improvements in health systems or lifestyles.

Abstract

This study aimed to verify the hypothesis that the improvement in the subjective assessment of population health in certain European countries after the COVID-19 pandemic was driven by the mortality of the majority of vulnerable citizens with the worst health status.

We extended the trend of the share of the oldest age group and compared it with the observed fraction, thereby identifying the “missing population.”

We observed a substantial deficit in the population of the oldest age group, especially in countries where people tend not to age well.

The temporary improvement in population health indicators, as measured by Healthy Life Years (HLY), during the pandemic in some countries was most likely an artifact resulting from the mortality of the majority of vulnerable individuals with poor health status. It is unlikely that this apparent improvement reflects healthier lifestyles or genuine gains in the efficiency or resilience of health systems during the pandemic. Therefore, the interpretation and use of HLY values from the COVID-19 period in Europe should be carefully reconsidered and further validated.

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