Cohort-resolved excess mortality in Germany (2000-2024): Patterns and implications for the SARS-CoV-2 era
Robert Rockenfeller, Michael Günther, Kin Israel Notarte, Kin Israel Notarte, Kin Israel Notarte
TL;DR
This study examines age-specific mortality patterns in Germany from 2000 to 2024, revealing hidden trends during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic that are not visible in overall population data.
Contribution
The paper introduces a cohort-resolved framework to detect age-specific excess and under-mortality patterns in Germany over two decades.
Findings
Sustained excess mortality was observed in adults aged 75-79 and 35-49 from late 2021 to 2024.
Persistent under-mortality was found in cohorts aged 30-34 and 55-59.
Excess mortality in older age groups in previous years suggests generational vulnerabilities linked to early-life adversity.
Abstract
Understanding the impact of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic on mortality requires more than aggregate statistics. While whole-population indicators have informed policy, they risk concealing subgroup-specific patterns. We analysed all-cause mortality in Germany from 2000 to 2024 using a weekly, cohort-resolved framework across 15 age groups to detect excess and under-mortality before, during, and after the pandemic. Expected mortality was modelled using exponential trends from two decades of pre-pandemic data. Deviations from expectation were quantified as normalised excess all-cause mortality rates (NEAMR), enabling the identification of significant, age-specific anomalies. We found sustained NEAMR in adults aged 75-79 and 35-49 from late 2021 through 2024—patterns absent in whole-population trends. Conversely, cohorts aged 30-34 and 55-59 showed persistent under-mortality. Earlier excess…
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Taxonomy
TopicsHealth disparities and outcomes · Global Health Care Issues · Climate Change and Health Impacts