# Supply–demand strategies for near-term climate benefits from hydrogen in the United States

## TL;DR

The study shows that using biomass-based hydrogen can significantly reduce emissions in the US, but current hydrogen use is misaligned with where it can have the biggest climate impact.

## Contribution

The paper introduces a new analysis of hydrogen supply and demand dynamics, emphasizing biomass-based hydrogen and sector-specific strategies for near-term climate benefits.

## Key findings

- Biomass-based hydrogen reduces supply mix emissions by 1.8 to 5.5 kg CO2 per kg of hydrogen.
- Transportation uses 75% of hydrogen despite lower mitigation intensity compared to industrial sectors.
- Sector-specific strategies could better align hydrogen deployment with climate goals.

## Abstract

Hydrogen (H2) is critical for energy decarbonization. Previous H2 research has overlooked key dynamics in H2 supply and demand. Our study reveals that the H2 supply mix is crucial for greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation, with biomass-based H2 providing substantial reductions in the near term when carbon pricing or large-scale advanced water electrolysis is unavailable. On the demand side, our results identify a misalignment between H2 deployment and GHG mitigation intensity: industrial sectors show higher GHG mitigation intensity but receive limited H2, while transportation sectors consume most H2 despite lower mitigation intensity. This highlights missed opportunities for maximizing emissions reductions. Our findings underscore the need to integrate clean H2 production incentives with sector-specific demand-side strategies to support national decarbonization goals.

Hydrogen (H2) is a promising energy carrier for decarbonization. However, the greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation potential of the H2 supply and its adoption across various demand sectors in the US remains unclear. Here, we couple prospective life cycle assessment with a process-based integrated assessment model to evaluate the GHG mitigation of H2 from supply and demand perspectives. Our results show the critical role of H2 production mix in determining supply-side GHG mitigation potential. Without national carbon pricing or large-scale electrolysis in the near future, biomass-based H2 (Bio-H2) emerges as a critical transitional clean H2 production technology. Bio-H2 reduces the life cycle GHG emission intensity of the H2 supply mix by 1.8 to 5.5 kg CO2 kg−1 H2, resulting in a national reduction of 606 to 1,706 Mt CO2e from 2025 to 2050. This represents 1.6 to 2 times greater mitigation potential compared to scenarios without Bio-H2. On the demand side, we identify a misalignment: industrial sectors with high mitigation intensity (e.g., iron and steel, 147 Mt CO2e EJ−1) receive limited H2 deployment (0.8 EJ), while the transportation sector accounts for 75% of H2 use (e.g., passenger and light-duty vehicles, 10 EJ) despite their lower mitigation intensities (54 Mt CO2e EJ−1). While economy-wide climate policies (e.g., carbon prices) could direct more industrial H2 usages, implementing these policies is challenging; sector-specific strategies can be more practical. Our results highlight the importance of near-term support for Bio-H2 and sector-specific demand strategies to enhance the climate effectiveness of US H2 deployment.