# Modeling the Potential Invasion Risk of Ageratina adenophora in China From an Ecological Suitability Perspective

## TL;DR

This study predicts how the invasive plant Ageratina adenophora might spread in China, considering climate and human factors, and suggests the need for region-specific management.

## Contribution

The study introduces a regional analysis of invasion risk factors and future projections for Ageratina adenophora under climate change scenarios.

## Key findings

- Population density and temperature seasonality are key national factors affecting A. adenophora invasion risk.
- Future projections show a northward and altitudinal shift in invasion risk by the 2060s.
- Regional drivers of invasion risk vary significantly across provinces like Yunnan, Sichuan, Guizhou, and Guangxi.

## Abstract

Invasive species like
Ageratina adenophora
significantly threaten biodiversity, ecosystem stability, and economic resources in China. This study assesses the current and future potential invasion risk of
A. adenophora
across China, focusing on the provinces of Yunnan, Sichuan, Guizhou, and Guangxi—areas identified as highly susceptible to invasion. Utilizing both climate and human activity data, our results reveal that population density and temperature seasonality are dominant national‐scale factors that affect the invasion risk of
A. adenophora
, while regional drivers exhibit significant variation. Projections show a northward and altitudinal shift in invasion risk by the 2060s, highlighting new potential invasion hotspots driven by future changes in climate and human activities. These findings underscore the importance of region‐specific management strategies and establish a foundation for adaptive measures to mitigate the ecological and economic impacts of
A. adenophora
.

Comprehensive analysis of
A. adenophora
invasion risk in China under CMIP6 scenarios. RF model used to simulate current and future distributions at national and provincial levels. Factors influencing invasion risk exhibit significant variation at the regional level. Projections indicate northward and altitudinal risk shifts by 2060s in key provinces.