# Climate Change Effect on Haematoxylum campechianum and Haematoxylum calakmulense (Fabaceae): Are We Losing Our Natural Heritage in South‐Eastern Mexico?

## TL;DR

This study examines how climate change may affect two important plant species in southeastern Mexico, finding that one is likely to lose suitable habitat while the other may expand.

## Contribution

The study uses ecological niche models to compare the climate change vulnerability of two Haematoxylum species in Mexico.

## Key findings

- Haematoxylum calakmulense is projected to lose more suitable habitat due to climate change.
- Haematoxylum campechianum may gain suitable areas in southeastern Mexico and neighboring regions.
- Mean annual temperature is the most influential variable for H. campechianum, while mean temperature of the coldest quarter is most important for H. calakmulense.

## Abstract

Climate change threatens biodiversity and the balance of ecosystems. Ecological niche models (ENMs) permit exploring the consequences of climate change on species distribution patterns and are an applicable tool for the management of key species.
Haematoxylum campechianum
and
Haematoxylum calakmulense are two plant species of economic and socio‐cultural interest for the Mesoamerican region. We aimed to characterize and identify the climatic niche overlap of both species and to assess the impact of climate change on their potential distribution in southeastern Mexico. We used 53 occurrence records of H. calakmulense and 604 of
H. campechianum
and a selection of climatic variables. After calibration and evaluation of the models, the best performing model for each species was selected. The models show a better performance with AUC values of 0.75 for
H. campechianum
and 0.66 for H. calakmulense. The niches of both species are similar, although not equivalent, but the variable with the greatest contribution in the case of
H. campechianum
is the mean annual temperature, whereas for H. calakmulense it is the mean temperature of the coldest quarter. It seems that H. calakmulense will lose more suitable areas in the future. In contrast, future projections for
H. campechianum
predict an area gain toward the southeast of Mexico, Belize, and Guatemala. This may indicate that
H. campechianum
is more resistant to climatic variation in the region, while H. calakmulense may have more problems with temperature variation soon. Our results should be considered in current and future reforestation plans to improve their efficiency.

Climate change threatens biodiversity and the balance of ecosystems, specifically in key species. It seems that Haematoxylum calakmulense will lose more suitable areas than Haematoxylum campehianum in the future. Our results should be considered in current and future reforestation plans to improve their efficiency.