# Physical partisan proximity outweighs online ties in predicting US voting outcomes

## TL;DR

This study finds that physical proximity to people with similar political views better predicts US voting outcomes than online connections.

## Contribution

The paper shows that physical partisan exposure outperforms online and residential exposure in predicting electoral outcomes.

## Key findings

- Partisan exposure in physical spaces more accurately predicts US county-level voting outcomes than online or residential exposure.
- Offline ties at the individual level better predict vote choice compared to online connections.
- Partisan segregation in physical spaces is higher than online segregation and linked to educational attainment.

## Abstract

Affective polarization and increasing social divisions affect social mixing and the spread of information across online and physical spaces, reinforcing social and electoral cleavages and influencing political outcomes. Here, using individual survey data and aggregated and de-identified co-location and online network data, we investigate the relationship between partisan exposure and vote choice in the United States by comparing offline and online dimensions of partisan exposure. By leveraging various statistical modeling approaches, we consistently find that partisan exposure in the physical space, as captured by co-location patterns, more accurately predicts electoral outcomes in US counties, outperforming online and residential exposures. Similarly, offline ties at the individual level better predict vote choice compared to online connections. We also estimate county-level experienced partisan segregation and examine its relationship with individuals’ demographic and socioeconomic characteristics. Focusing on metropolitan areas, our results confirm the presence of extensive partisan segregation in the United States and show that offline partisan isolation, both considering physical encounters or residential sorting, is higher than online segregation and is primarily associated with educational attainment. Our findings emphasize the importance of physical space in understanding the relationship between social networks and political behavior, in contrast to the intense scrutiny focused on online social networks and elections.