Comprehensive Analysis of the Impact of Climate Change and Human Activities on the Distribution of Five Fritillaria Species Using the Optimized Maxent Model

TL;DR

This study uses a model to predict how climate change and human activities will affect the future distribution of five rare Fritillaria plant species.

Contribution

The study applies an optimized Maxent model to project species distribution shifts under climate change scenarios for five Fritillaria species.

Findings

F. przewalskii and F. delavayi are likely to migrate to higher elevations, while F. taipaiensis is expected to move to lower elevations.

Under the SSP585 climate scenario, suitable areas for F. cirrhosa, F. przewalskii, and F. taipaiensis are contracting, while those for F. unibracteata and F. delavayi are expanding.

Abstract

With climate change and the influence of human activities, species are likely to migrate or even go extinct. Five Fritillaria species, a well‐known traditional Chinese medicinal plant, are rarer due to overharvesting. This study employed the Maxent model to identify suitable areas for the plant, determine key environmental factors, and project future shifts under three climate change scenarios. The analysis showed F. przewalskii and F. delavayi might migrate to higher elevations, while F. taipaiensis was expected to move to lower elevations. There were differences in the dominant environmental factors among different origins: F. cirrhosa (elevation, bio7, bio9, bio12, hfp); F. unibracteata (elevation, bio4, bio15, bio19, hfp); F. przewalskii (elevation, bio4, bio11, bio15, hfp); F. delavayi (elevation, bio3, bio18, hfp); F. taipaiensis (bio2, bio3, bio4, bio11, hfp). Under the SSP585 scenario, the suitable areas of F. cirrhosa, F. przewalskii, and F. taipaiensis were contracting, while those of F. unibracteata and F. delavayi were rising. Also, the centroids of F. cirrhosa and F. przewalskii shifted slightly northeastward, F. unibracteata's shifted southward, and F. delavayi and F. taipaiensis's shifted northwestward. These findings provide a foundation for the conservation, sustainable management, and cultivation of five Fritillaria species.

This study utilized extensive specimen data and detailed geographic and environmental information, applying the Maxent model to predict the distribution of F. cirrhosae bulbus. The key findings are as follows: (1) F. przewalskii and F. delavayi tend to migrate to higher altitudes, while F. taipaiensis is shifting to lower altitudes. (2) Among different species of F. cirrhosae bulbus, altitude, temperature, and precipitation significantly influence distribution, with altitude being the most critical factor. (3) Under the SSP585 scenario, the suitable areas of F. cirrhosa, F. przewalskii, and F. taipaiensis were contracting, while those of F. unibracteata and F. delavayi were rising. Also, the centroids of F. cirrhosa and F. przewalskii shifted slightly northeastward, F. unibracteata shifted southward, and F. delavayi and F. taipaiensis shifted northwestward.

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