Spatiotemporal Distribution Characteristic and Influencing Factors of African Swine Fever Outbreaks (2018/8–2019/12) in China
Juan Li, Bingxin Nie, Shubo Li, Junhui Zhang, Lu Gao
TL;DR
This study analyzed the spread of African swine fever in China from 2018 to 2019, identifying key factors and high-risk regions to help prevent future outbreaks.
Contribution
The study introduces a Bayesian spatiotemporal model to analyze ASF spread and risk factors in China.
Findings
High-risk clusters were identified in Liaoning, Heilongjiang, and Beijing.
GDP per capita positively correlated with ASF risk, while veterinarian numbers inversely correlated.
The study emphasizes the importance of veterinary services and biosecurity for disease control.
Abstract
African swine fever (ASF), a highly lethal viral disease with no effective vaccines or treatments, poses a significant threat to the global pig industry. Since its first report in China in August 2018, it has spread rapidly, severely impacting China's pig industry. This study developed a Bayesian spatiotemporal model to explore ASF's spatiotemporal patterns, assess relative risk (RR), and identify key factors, aiming to inform targeted prevention strategies. Data (disease-related deaths, pig inventory, GDP, temperature, and 6 other factors) were collected from 31 mainland Chinese provinces from August 2018 to December 2019. The INLA algorithm estimated parameters, with the optimal model selected via DIC and WAIC. Multicollinearity was addressed using VIF and Spearman's correlation coefficient. Univariate and multivariate models quantified factor effects, with risk classified by natural…
Genes, proteins, chemicals, diseases, species, mutations and cell lines named across the full text — each resolved to its canonical identifier and authoritative record.
Click any figure to enlarge with its caption.
Figure 1
Figure 2
Figure 3
Figure 4
Figure 5
Figure 6
Figure 7
Figure 8
Figure 9
Figure 10
Figure 11Peer Reviews
No public reviews on file for this paper yet. If you reviewed it on a platform where reviews are public (OpenReview, ICLR, NeurIPS, ICML), you can paste yours below so the community can read it here.
Videos
No videos yet. Explain this paper in a talk, walkthrough, or lecture? Add one.
Taxonomy
TopicsAnimal Disease Management and Epidemiology · Vector-Borne Animal Diseases · Agriculture and Farm Safety