Improving health and housing outcomes through a simulation and economic model: an evidence-based protocol of a group model building approach to develop an agent-based model

TL;DR

This study uses a simulation model to explore how housing and health outcomes can be improved for people experiencing homelessness in the U.S.

Contribution

The novel contribution is the development of an agent-based model using group model building to evaluate housing and health interventions.

Findings

The model will simulate dynamic processes affecting HIV incidence, overdose, and life expectancy.

It will assess outcomes across housing status, health, budget, and economic value dimensions.

Model code and results will be publicly shared for transparency and reproducibility.

Abstract

Homelessness in the United States increased every year since 2016, with a 38% increase from 2023 to 2024. Much of the increase is attributable to rising home and rent costs, economic hardship caused by the recent pandemic, and the ending of protective legislation. Notably, people who experience homelessness have an increased risk of substance use disorders, HIV infection and poorer HIV outcomes than people who are stably housed. The iHouse model aims to develop feasible, effective, and cost-effective tailored approaches to improve health outcomes in this population including life expectancy, overdose, and HIV.

The study will employ Group Model Building methods and use insights from that process to develop an agent-based model simulating the dynamic processes contributing to HIV incidence and treatment, overdose, and life expectancy among people along the housing and homelessness continuum in Denver, CO and San Francisco, CA. The model will evaluate multiple outcomes from 4 conceptual dimensions: (1) movement along the housing continuum, (2) population health (overdose and HIV incidence and life expectancy), (3) budgetary impact, (4) economic value.

This study has been approved by the Colorado Institutional Review Board at the University of Colorado under protocol 24–0878. The data generated by this protocol, the methodologies used, and the findings will be made available in a timely manner to other researchers. iHOUSE code and parameter values will be published in Git Hub, such that all model analyses can be reproduced by independent investigators. Documentation of all parameter estimates and model results will be published for independent review and confirmation. In addition, supplemental materials and appendices for the model will be shared on a publicly available website.

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