# Spatiotemporal Distribution Patterns and Conservation Priorities of Gymnosperms With Different Leaf Shapes in China Under Climate Change

## TL;DR

This study models how climate change will affect the distribution of rare gymnosperms in China, finding that many species will lose habitat and shift to higher altitudes.

## Contribution

The study identifies spatiotemporal distribution patterns of gymnosperms with different leaf shapes under climate change scenarios in China.

## Key findings

- Approximately half of the gymnosperm species will experience notable range contractions and migrate to higher altitudes.
- Lanceolate-leaved gymnosperms show an expansionary trend, while other groups face range reductions.
- High species richness hotspots have limited overlap with existing nature reserves, indicating a need for new conservation strategies.

## Abstract

Leaf morphology is one of the important indicators for studying the response of plants to climate change. Gymnosperms play a crucial role in maintaining biodiversity and ecosystem stability in China. However, the geographical and altitudinal distribution patterns of gymnosperms with different leaf morphologies in China in response to climate change are not yet fully understood. This study utilized occurrence data for 71 rare gymnosperm species (including varieties) and 15 environmental variables to model the contemporary geographical distribution for the 2070s and the 2090s under two shared socioeconomic pathway scenarios (SSP2‐4.5 and SSP5‐8.5). Gymnosperm species were classified into five groups based on their leaf shapes (needle‐shaped, scale‐shaped, lanceolate‐shaped, fan‐shaped, and strip‐shaped), and the analysis revealed that the primary climatic variable driving ecological niche differences among these groups was Bio15 (precipitation seasonality). Lanceolate‐leaved gymnosperms exhibited an expansionary trend, whereas other groups generally showed range reductions under future climatic scenarios. The results indicated that approximately half of the gymnosperm species will experience notable range contractions and gradual migration to higher altitudes in northwestern regions from the present to the 2090s. Hotspots for species richness were identified in the eastern Yunnan‐Guizhou Plateau, the Nanling Mountains, and the eastern Zhejiang‐Fujian Hills. However, these hotspots showed limited overlap with existing nature reserves in China. The threat status of some species will be severely upgraded from vulnerable to critically endangered, such as Abies recurvata, highlighting the urgent need for enhanced conservation efforts. This study enhances understanding of the future distribution patterns of China's gymnosperms and provides valuable insights for developing targeted protection and conservation strategies.

This study modeled the spatiotemporal distribution patterns of 71 rare gymnosperm species (including varieties) with five different leaf morphologies in China in response to climate change and found that approximately half of the species will experience significant range contractions and migrate to higher altitudes toward the northwest. Lanceolate‐leaved gymnosperms show range expansions compared to other groups. The overlap between the regions of high species richness and existing national nature reserves remains limited, posing the need for targeted conservation strategies.