# Probabilistic Damage Modeling and Thermal Shock Risk Assessment of UHTCMC Thruster Under Transient Green Propulsion Operation

## TL;DR

This paper introduces a new simulation-based method to assess thermal shock risks in ceramic thrusters used in green propulsion systems.

## Contribution

A novel stress-margin envelope methodology is introduced for fatigue risk assessment in ceramic matrix composite thrusters.

## Key findings

- The convergent throat region experiences a peak thermal gradient rate of approximately 380 K/s.
- Stress margins in the throat region collapse by 2.3 s, and margin loss in the flange curvature appears near 8 s.

## Abstract

This study presents a simulation-based damage modeling and fatigue risk assessment of a reusable ceramic matrix composite thruster designed for short-duration, green bipropellant propulsion systems. The thruster is constructed from a fiber-reinforced ultra-high temperature ceramic matrix composite composed of zirconium diboride, silicon carbide, and carbon fibers. Time-resolved thermal and structural simulations are conducted on a validated thruster geometry to characterize the severity of early-stage thermal shock, stress buildup, and potential degradation pathways. Unlike traditional fatigue studies that rely on empirical fatigue constants or Paris-law-based crack-growth models, this work introduces a simulation-derived stress-margin envelope methodology that incorporates ±20% variability in temperature-dependent material strength, offering a physically grounded yet conservative risk estimate. From this, a normalized risk index is derived to evaluate the likelihood of damage initiation in critical regions over the 0–10 s firing window. The results indicate that the convergent throat region experiences a peak thermal gradient rate of approximately 380 K/s, with the normalized thermal shock index exceeding 43. Stress margins in this region collapse by 2.3 s, while margin loss in the flange curvature appears near 8 s. These findings are mapped into green, yellow, and red risk bands to classify operational safety zones. All the results assume no active cooling, representing conservative operating limits. If regenerative or ablative cooling is implemented, these margins would improve significantly. The framework established here enables a transparent, reproducible methodology for evaluating lifetime safety in ceramic propulsion nozzles and serves as a foundational tool for fatigue-resilient component design in green space engines.