# A Novel Conservation Genomic Strategy: Selection for the Probability of Offspring Heterozygosity

## TL;DR

This paper introduces a new DNA-based strategy for conservation breeding that helps maintain genetic diversity by selecting parents likely to produce highly heterozygous offspring.

## Contribution

A novel parent-selection strategy based on the Probability of Offspring Heterozygosity (POH) is proposed and validated through simulations.

## Key findings

- Selection based on POH consistently maintained high observed heterozygosity for up to 1000 generations.
- Using ten breeding pairs, both observed and expected heterozygosity levels were kept high.
- POH shows potential as a tool to enhance genetic diversity in conservation breeding programs.

## Abstract

This manuscript introduces a proof of concept, a DNA-based, conservation management strategy that has demonstrated significant effectiveness in maintaining genetic diversity by identifying the combinations of parents that are most likely to produce highly heterozygous offspring. Our simplified experimental model reveals that both the observed and the expected heterozygosity can be kept at a high level with ten breeding pairs. This conservation genomic approach has the potential to prevent or reverse the extinction processes affecting endangered populations, breeds, and species, addressing one of the most pressing challenges in conservation studies.

The primary objective of any conservation breeding program is to preserve the genetic diversity of populations. This objective is a persistent challenge, especially in small populations which are prone to loss of heterozygosity. In this study, we proposed a novel parent-selection strategy aimed at the long-term maintenance of high levels of genetic diversity. Our approach is based on estimating the Probability of Offspring Heterozygosity (POH)—the likelihood that a mating will produce heterozygous offspring—using SNP genotype data. This strategy was evaluated through computer simulations, where parental pairs with the highest POH values were preferentially selected to produce the next generation. Simulations explored the effects of varying the number of breeding pairs, and the number of unlinked SNP markers. Selection based on POH resulted in observed heterozygosity (HOBS) consistently exceeding expected heterozygosity (HEXP), a trend that was sustained for up to 1000 generations. While further evaluation is needed within more complex population genetic frameworks—accounting for linkage disequilibrium, recombination, optimal contribution, and phenotypic selection—our findings highlight the potential of POH as a valuable tool for enhancing genetic diversity in conservation breeding programs.