Analysis of the trends in burden of meningitis in China from 1990 to 2021, and projections until 2036

TL;DR

This study examines how the burden of meningitis in China has changed from 1990 to 2021 and predicts future trends until 2036, showing a significant decline in disease rates.

Contribution

The study provides new projections of meningitis burden in China using Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort analysis and compares trends with global data.

Findings

Meningitis incidence, prevalence, mortality, and DALYs declined significantly in China and globally from 1990 to 2021.

Men had higher meningitis incidence and mortality rates than women.

The disease burden is expected to continue decreasing in the next 12 years, but remains a public health concern due to China's aging population.

Abstract

This study aimed to describe the temporal trends in age and sex burdens of meningitis in China from 1990 to 2021 and to compare them with the global burden of the disease.

Using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021, this study analyzed the features of meningitis burden in China and globally, including incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardized rates of mortality (ASMR), age-standardized rates of prevalence (ASPR), and age-standardized DALY rate (ASDR). The average annual percentage change (AAPC) and associated 95% confidence interval (95% CI) were computed using Joinpoint. A comprehensive comparative analysis of the differences in meningitis burden between China and the world was conducted from multiple dimensions, including age, sex, and periods. Using the BAPC and INLA software tools to perform a Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort (BAPC) analysis in R.

From 1990 to 2021, the ASIR fell from 66.565/100,000 to 31.649/100,000 globally, and from 30.833/100,000 to 5.791/100,000 in China. The ASPR decreased from 11,291,266/100,000 to 92.251/100,000 globally, and from 140.1/100,000 to 16.622/100,000 in China. The ASMR decreased from 7.416/100,000 to 2.947/100,000 globally, while decreased from 3.537/100,000 to 0.475/100,000 in China. The ASDR decreased from 551.176/100,000 to 208.565/100,000 globally, while decreased from 267.304/100,000 to 27.952/100,000 in China. The global AAPC of ASIR, ASPR, ASMR, and ASDR was −2.364, 2.679, −2.970%, and −3.131%, whereas in China it was −5.307, −6.665%, −6.311%, and −7.149, respectively. The effects of age and sex on the burden of meningitis were different. Men had higher incidence and mortality rates of meningitis than women. ASIR in males and females would decrease in the following years.

There was a discernible decline in the incidence, prevalence, mortality, and DALYs associated with meningitis in China and worldwide between 1990 and 2021. Meningitis is more common and fatal in infants and early children, followed by the older adult. Men are more likely than women to die from meningitis and to contract it. It is anticipated that the disease burden of meningitis will continue to decline over the ensuing 12 years. Meningitis continues to be a significant public health concern in China due to the country’s huge and aging population.

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