# Statistical inference and effect measures in abstracts of major HIV and AIDS journals, 1987–2022: A systematic review

## TL;DR

This study tracks how statistical reporting in HIV/AIDS journals evolved from 1987 to 2022, showing increased use of confidence intervals and specific effect measures.

## Contribution

The study provides a detailed historical analysis of statistical reporting trends in HIV/AIDS journals over 35 years.

## Key findings

- Reporting of confidence intervals increased from 11% in 1988 to 56% in 2022.
- Odds ratios were the most commonly reported effect measure (51%), followed by hazard and risk ratios.
- Difference measures and number needed to treat or harm were rarely reported.

## Abstract

With the emergence of HIV/AIDS journals, the development of the reporting of statistical inference and effect measures in published abstracts can be examined from the beginning in a new field. The aim of this study was to describe time trends of statistical inference and effect measure reporting of major HIV/AIDS journals

We included 10 major HIV/AIDS journals and analyzed all available PubMed entries for the period 1987 through 2022. We applied rule-based text mining and machine learning methodology to detect the presence of confidence intervals, numerical p-values or comparisons of p-values with thresholds, language describing statistical significance, and effect measures for dichotomous outcomes

Among 41,730 PubMed entries from the major HIV/AIDS journals, 31,665 contained an abstract. In the early years, most abstracts reporting statistical inference contained only significance terminology without confidence intervals and p-values. From 1988 to 2005, each year 30 % of all abstracts contained p-values without confidence intervals. Thereafter, this reporting style continued to decline. The reporting of confidence intervals increased steadily from 1988 (11 %) to 2022 (56 %). Of the 17 % of abstracts in 2017–2022 that included any effect measure, half reported odds ratios (51 %), followed by hazard ratios (28 %) and risk ratios (16 %). Difference measures and number needed to treat or harm were very uncommon

Within the HIV/AIDS literature, there has been widespread use of confidence intervals. Most of the journals that we reviewed had a decrease in reporting only statistical significance without confidence intervals over time

•Initially, statistical reporting contained only significance terminology.•Reporting of confidence intervals increased from 1988 (11 %) to 2022 (56 %).•Most frequently reported effect measures included odds, hazard and risk ratios.•Difference measures and number needed to treat or harm were very uncommon.

Initially, statistical reporting contained only significance terminology.

Reporting of confidence intervals increased from 1988 (11 %) to 2022 (56 %).

Most frequently reported effect measures included odds, hazard and risk ratios.

Difference measures and number needed to treat or harm were very uncommon.