# Combined warming index energy system analysis framework for methane leakage rate and carbon capture rate uncertainty

## TL;DR

This paper introduces a new framework to analyze how methane leakage and carbon capture rates affect the viability of blue hydrogen in a decarbonized future.

## Contribution

The paper presents a novel Combined Warming Index (CWI) and framework to assess blue hydrogen's role in energy systems under uncertainty.

## Key findings

- The CWI framework reveals how methane leakage and carbon capture rates influence energy system dynamics.
- Unique property envelopes are established to evaluate the state of energy systems under varying conditions.
- The analysis highlights the importance of considering both leakage and capture rates for blue hydrogen viability.

## Abstract

Fossil fuels dominate the production of hydrogen and will continue to contribute in a decarbonised future. Blue hydrogen production from natural gas with carbon capture and storage technology applied is seen as the major route for natural gas in a future Hydrogen Economy. Methane leakage rate in natural gas supply chains and carbon capture rate are two critical parameters for the success of blue hydrogen. Despite this, the linked effect of the variables are difficult to identify, especially in terms of their impacts on decarbonisation metrics within the energy system. We formulate a new Combined Warming Index (CWI) measure and develop a framework for analysing the influence of methane leakage rate and carbon capture rate on blue hydrogen viability and other relevant energy system characteristics.

Framework outline:

• Investigate energy system scenarios within a range of methane leakage rates and carbon capture rates (varying Combined Warming Indices [CWI]) on blue hydrogen.

• Analyse important energy system dynamic parameter indicators versus the Combined Warming Index (CWI).

• Resultant energy system trends for methane leakage rates and carbon capture rates analysed against Combined Warming Index (CWI) establish unique property envelopes that reveal the state of the energy system at conditions and periods of interest.

Image, graphical abstract