Northwestward shifts in the locations of genesis reduce the lifetime of landfalling tropical cyclones in China

TL;DR

Tropical cyclones in China are living shorter lives due to northwestward shifts in where they form, linked to climate changes.

Contribution

This study identifies the northwestward shift in TC genesis locations as a key driver of reduced TC lifetimes in China.

Findings

The lifetime of landfalling TCs in China has decreased by 24% over the past 40 years.

Northwestward migration of genesis locations reduces the duration of minor TCs.

Changes in TC lifetime are linked to decreased Convective Available Potential Energy and westward extension of the subtropical high.

Abstract

China is one of the countries most affected by tropical cyclones (TCs) worldwide. However, it remains unclear whether the significant poleward and coastal shifts in global TCs due to climate warming have affected the lifetime of landfalling TCs in China. Result shows that the lifetime of landfalling TCs in China has significantly decreased by 24% over the past 40 years, which is primarily contributed by the minor TCs. The duration in development stage has significantly shortened for both major and minor TCs. The northwestward migration of genesis locations has led to a decrease in duration of minor TCs, while the increase in the intensification rate has contributed to the shorter major TC durations. Further analysis suggests that these changes in TC lifetime and northwestward shifts are associated with a decrease in the Convective Available Potential Energy and westward extension of the subtropical high. The observed increase in rapid intensifications of major TCs is mainly driven by an increase in favourable thermodynamic environments. These findings clarify the connection between large-scale changes in TC genesis locations and regional characteristics of TC activity.

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1038/s41598-025-11996-7.

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