# Predicting the Implications of Climatic Alterations on the Distribution of Endangered Species: A Case Study of Saxifragaceae on the Qinghai‐Xizang Plateau

## TL;DR

This study predicts how climate change will affect the distribution of four endangered Saxifragaceae species on the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau, identifying key regions for conservation.

## Contribution

The study combines MaxEnt modeling with SSPs to project future habitat shifts of Saxifragaceae species under climate change.

## Key findings

- Key environmental factors like elevation and precipitation seasonality strongly influence Saxifragaceae distribution.
- Suitable habitats for these species have increased over time and are expected to shift southward.
- Conservation efforts should focus on southeastern Qinghai-Xizang Plateau to protect these species.

## Abstract

Understanding the potential impacts of climate change on species distribution is crucial for the conservation of threatened taxa. The Saxifragaceae family, known for its susceptibility to habitat disturbance, exhibits a diverse distribution across multiple regions. While a significant proportion of this family is found on the Qinghai‐Xizang Plateau (QXP), nearly half of the Saxifraga species are native to Europe, with other genera, such as Heuchera, showing centers of diversity in North America and Japan. This study applies the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model in combination with Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) to assess the potential influence of climate change on the distribution and species richness of four endangered Saxifragaceae species (
Saxifraga cernua
L., Saxifraga tangutica Engl., Saxifraga przewalskii Engl. ex‐Maxim., Saxifraga unguiculata Engl.) on the QXP, spanning from the Last Glacial Maximum to 2080. Our findings reveal that key environmental factors, including elevation, slope, mean annual temperature, isothermality, precipitation seasonality, and precipitation during the wettest quarter, significantly influence species distribution patterns. Historical climate models suggest that approximately 30% of the QXP provided highly suitable habitat for Saxifragaceae species, a proportion that has increased to over 30% in current projections, with this trend expected to persist across the next three time intervals. Optimal habitats were identified in the southeastern QXP, western Sichuan, and northern Yunnan. Projections indicate that these taxa will likely shift southward in response to ongoing climate changes. These results highlight the need for targeted conservation strategies, emphasizing the establishment of protected areas in southeastern QXP to preserve these vulnerable species of Saxifragaceae.

In this study, we employ the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model in conjunction with Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) to assess the MaxEnt potential influence of climate change on the distribution and richness of four endangered Saxifragaceae species (
Saxifraga cernua
L., Saxifraga tangutica Engl., Saxifraga przewalskii Engl. ex‐Maxim., Saxifraga unguiculata Engl.) on the QXP.