# Comparison of HIV self-test distribution modalities to reduce HIV transmission and burden in western Kenya: a mathematical modelling study

## TL;DR

This study uses a mathematical model to compare different ways of distributing HIV self-tests in western Kenya to see which method is most effective at reducing HIV infections and deaths.

## Contribution

The study introduces a novel comparison of HIV self-test distribution strategies using a calibrated agent-based model to project long-term population-level outcomes.

## Key findings

- Partner services distribution of HIVST averts the most HIV infections and deaths compared to other methods.
- Outpatient distribution leads to the highest increase in HIV testing rates but is less effective at preventing infections.
- ANC distribution is less effective than partner services but still reduces HIV transmission significantly.

## Abstract

To compare the impact of different HIV self-testing (HIVST) distribution modalities on population-level HIV outcomes.

Mathematical modelling study.

Six counties in western Kenya.

We projected population-level HIV outcomes among individuals aged 15+over 30 years (2022–2052) using EMOD-HIV, an agent-based network transmission model calibrated to the HIV epidemic in western Kenya. We simulated the impact of three HIVST distribution modalities: (1) secondary distribution to male partners via women who attend antenatal care visits (‘ANC’); (2) secondary distribution to partners of individuals newly diagnosed with HIV at health facilities (‘partner services’); and (3) distribution to any individuals attending outpatient clinics (‘outpatient’). We informed our model assumptions on HIV testing uptake for each HIVST distribution modality using the estimates from a meta-analysis of randomised clinical trials published between 2006 and 2019 and compared the outcomes for each HIVST distribution modality to standard testing without HIVST.

The number of HIV tests performed (HIVST and non-HIVST), HIV diagnoses, HIV infections, and HIV-related deaths.

With standard testing alone, the average number of HIV tests was 4.69 million per year, amounting to 81.0 tests per 100 adults. The average number of tests per year increased by 2.9% with ANC, 0.6% with partner services, and 23.7% with outpatient distribution of HIVST. Compared with standard testing alone, partner services with HIVST will avert the largest number of new HIV infections (10.2%, 95% CI 9.9% to 10.5%), followed by outpatient distribution (8.5%, 95% CI 8.2% to 8.7%) and ANC (6.1%, 95% CI 5.8% to 6.3%). Compared with standard testing, the number of HIVST needed per one additional HIV infection averted was 216 with ANC, 17 with partner services and 2009 with outpatient, while the number of HIVST per one additional HIV-related death averted was 364 with ANC, 17 with partner services and 3851 with outpatient.

Secondary distribution of HIVST to partners of individuals newly diagnosed with HIV could prevent the most HIV infections and HIV-related deaths. HIVST can be an important strategy to improve uptake of testing and long-term population-level health effects.