Impact of Climate Change on the Distributional Potential of the Endemic Species Tamarix dubia Bunge and Conservation Implications for the Irano‐Turanian Region

TL;DR

This study shows how climate change is likely to reduce the suitable habitat for the drought-tolerant plant Tamarix dubia in the Irano-Turanian region.

Contribution

The study provides new insights into the future distributional changes of an endemic plant species under climate change scenarios.

Findings

The warmest quarter temperature and wettest quarter precipitation are key factors affecting Tamarix dubia's distribution.

Future climate scenarios predict a significant reduction in suitable habitat for T. dubia by 2041–2060.

High suitability loss is expected in the species' current habitats despite its drought tolerance.

Abstract

Climate change significantly influences species distribution patterns. Utilizing Ecological Niche Models (ENMs) in climate change research provides valuable insights into species–environment relationships and can inform conservation management decisions. We analyzed climate change effects on the geographic distribution of Tamarix dubia Bunge, an endemic species in the Irano‐Turanian region, using ENM approaches. We modeled the current and future suitable areas for
T. dubia
using the Maxent algorithm under two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP2‐4.5 and SSP5‐8.5) for the period 2041–2060. The results revealed that the mean temperature of the warmest quarter (bio10) and precipitation of the wettest quarter (bio16) were determined to be the most important explanatory climatic variables affecting
T. dubia
distribution. Under both future scenarios, we predicted a decrease in the suitable habitat range of
T. dubia
in the period 2041–2060. Moreover, a relatively high loss of suitability was anticipated in the actual ranges of species. The results indicated that the distribution of
T. dubia
, a drought‐tolerant plant species, is likely to be affected significantly by climate change. This study supports future management plans for
T. dubia
and provides insights into the impacts of climate change on endemic species in arid and semi‐arid regions, which are valuable for understanding distribution patterns and informing future research in the Irano‐Turanian region.

Tamarix dubia, a plant species of drought–stress tolerance, undergoes significant climate changes. A relatively high loss of suitability was anticipated in actual habitats of the species using ecological niche modeling approaches. Under future scenarios, a decrease in the suitable habitat range of
T. dubia
was predicted for the period 2041–2060.

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