# Qualitative Risk Assessment of Foot-and-Mouth Disease Virus Introduction and Transmission to Dairy Farms via Raw Milk Transportation in Thailand: A Scenario-Based Approach

## TL;DR

This study assesses how raw milk transportation could spread foot-and-mouth disease to dairy farms in Thailand, finding a moderate risk due to weak biosecurity and detection challenges.

## Contribution

A scenario-based qualitative risk assessment of FMDV transmission via raw milk transport in a specific Thai district, identifying key risk factors and mitigation needs.

## Key findings

- The overall risk of FMDV transmission via raw milk transport was assessed as moderate.
- Weak farm biosecurity and contamination at milk collection points were identified as major risk factors.
- Subclinical carrier detection challenges contribute significantly to transmission risk.

## Abstract

Foot-and-mouth disease is a serious threat to livestock worldwide, and raw milk transportation can spread the virus, especially in areas where the disease is common. This study aimed to understand the risk of this disease spreading to dairy farms through raw milk transport in Ban Thi District, Thailand. We used a study approach based on international guidelines, gathering information from farmer surveys (109 participants), expert discussions (12 individuals), and reviewing of government records and scientific papers. Our step-by-step assessment of how the disease could spread in dairy cattle found a moderate overall risk. This risk was mainly due to weaknesses in farm safety practices, possible contamination at milk collection points, and the difficulty in finding animals that carry the virus without showing any signs. Even though our study had some limitations, it clearly showed important areas where the disease could spread. The findings highlight an urgent need for better farm safety rules, improved ways to monitor infected animals, and standard methods to assess such risks, all to prevent future outbreaks and protect local dairy farming.

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) significantly impacts global livestock industries, with raw milk transportation posing a recognized pathway for viral dissemination, particularly in endemic regions. This study aimed to evaluate the risk of FMD virus (FMDV) introduction and transmission to dairy farms via raw milk transportation in Ban Thi District, Thailand. A qualitative risk assessment methodology, adhering to WOAH guidelines, was employed. Data were collected through structured farmer surveys (n = 109), expert interviews (n = 12), and reviews of national disease surveillance data and scientific literature. The risk assessment, utilizing a scenario tree approach for domestic dairy cattle, revealed a moderate overall risk of FMDV transmission. This finding is primarily attributed to critical gaps in on-farm biosecurity practices, potential contamination at milk collection centers, and significant challenges in detecting subclinical carrier animals. While the qualitative approach presented inherent limitations and uncertainties, the study successfully highlighted key vulnerabilities. The results underscore the urgent necessity for implementing targeted biosecurity protocols, developing more robust surveillance strategies for FMDV carriers, and establishing standardized risk assessment frameworks to mitigate potential outbreaks and protect the regional dairy industry.